{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86030599-df63-4ae4-9ca2-7f9b78e37c2a", "symbol": "CXRN", "name": "TEUCRIUM 2X DAILY CORN ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.851, "architecture_energy": 22.994, "architecture_maturity": 72.039, "architecture_confidence": 81.194, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.8, "rotation_up": 33.29, "upward_expansion": 21.28, "deceleration": 43.82, "rotation_down": 26.45, "downward_expansion": 57.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.935523, 16.526033, 17.036006, 17.608694 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.42, "trend_reference": 18.12014, "distance_from_trend": -0.093826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.72005, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207531, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.011083, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.101576, "excess_performance": -0.2272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207531, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136855, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210111, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117713, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.101576, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.520301, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15041, "relative_activity": 0.183877, "balance": 0.520301, "dry_up": 0.226649, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091055, "annualized_volatility": 0.379531, "from_high_reference": -0.226012, "from_low_reference": 0.156216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.12014, "fair_value_reference": 20.72005, "structural_low": 14.2015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.08954, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09416, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.08954, "worst_return": 0.08954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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17.435265, 17.928497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.967759, "volume": 24940, "typical_volume": 91932.75, "trend": 18.350861, "fair_value": 20.848379, "relative_strength": -16.194573, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.968577, "energy": 39.665407, "activity_lines": [ 16.200745, 16.19563, 17.307844, 17.834126 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.380491, "volume": 10805, "typical_volume": 91361.15, "trend": 18.299625, "fair_value": 20.819345, "relative_strength": -8.349106, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.147645, "energy": 18.88453, "activity_lines": [ 17.018411, 16.514769, 17.324781, 17.836038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.5801, "volume": 23373, "typical_volume": 89676.6, "trend": 18.224305, "fair_value": 20.770051, "relative_strength": -17.815303, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.971447, "energy": 23.931744, "activity_lines": [ 17.048802, 16.510838, 17.178427, 17.725101 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.42, "volume": 15041, "typical_volume": 81799.3, "trend": 18.12014, "fair_value": 20.72005, "relative_strength": -21.011083, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.851214, "energy": 22.993737, "activity_lines": [ 16.935523, 16.526033, 17.036006, 17.608694 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }