{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86069082-e92d-4210-9b03-6c5f8f9aabd6", "symbol": "STK", "name": "Strickland Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.324, "architecture_energy": 76.552, "architecture_maturity": 66.169, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.0, "rotation_up": 28.94, "upward_expansion": 18.1, "deceleration": 40.34, "rotation_down": 51.96, "downward_expansion": 89.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0834, 0.087218, 0.104795, 0.12737 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.085, "trend_reference": 0.155333, "distance_from_trend": -0.45279, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.123222, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.310187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.905928, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.564103, "excess_performance": -0.627808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.45279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175221, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.310187, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.490051, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.509059, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30702, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.564103, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.156302, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11045618, "relative_activity": 0.583513, "balance": 0.156302, "dry_up": 0.61715, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186425, "annualized_volatility": 0.784371, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.089744 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.155333, "fair_value_reference": 0.123222, "structural_low": 0.078, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.025, "positive_rate": 0.52381, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -9.5e-05, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.483516, "worst_return": -0.296296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055556, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.11839, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.263736, "worst_return": -0.14, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010989, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.045493, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.971429, "worst_return": -0.259259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.411579, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.049871, "energy": 73.080843, "activity_lines": [ 0.090933, 0.095164, 0.121376, 0.143105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.079, "volume": 9678488, "typical_volume": 20993285.65, "trend": 0.163267, "fair_value": 0.122683, "relative_strength": -52.515848, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.156718, "energy": 76.533136, "activity_lines": [ 0.086667, 0.091182, 0.114929, 0.137409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.082, "volume": 8573384, "typical_volume": 20049428.95, "trend": 0.159333, "fair_value": 0.122946, "relative_strength": -51.461158, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.442319, "energy": 73.627406, "activity_lines": [ 0.084333, 0.088764, 0.109414, 0.132166 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.085, "volume": 11045618, "typical_volume": 18929519.3, "trend": 0.155333, "fair_value": 0.123222, "relative_strength": -50.905928, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.323781, "energy": 76.552427, "activity_lines": [ 0.0834, 0.087218, 0.104795, 0.12737 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }