{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86087430-ba31-4c26-9771-669572fad9b7", "symbol": "300912", "name": "Kailong High Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 85.924, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.148, "architecture_energy": 60.726, "architecture_maturity": 34.708, "architecture_confidence": 87.546, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.58, "rotation_up": 13.35, "upward_expansion": 14.91, "deceleration": 35.3, "rotation_down": 69.58, "downward_expansion": 88.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.184, 23.709273, 25.558857, 26.139247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.07, "trend_reference": 26.196, "distance_from_trend": -0.233852, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.567756, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.437959, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011083, "excess_performance": 0.003683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.233852, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108904, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.736101, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.464127, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011083, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.461639, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49010654, "relative_activity": 1.620292, "balance": 0.461639, "dry_up": 1.253279, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.247748, "annualized_volatility": 1.0593, "from_high_reference": -0.581875, "from_low_reference": 0.412386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.196, "fair_value_reference": 16.567756, "structural_low": 19.190001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.01395, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.017558, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.811838, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.112329, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.095109, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.900881, "worst_return": -0.365757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.28509, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.097253, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.733672, "worst_return": -0.314213, 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"fair_value": 16.5425, "relative_strength": 6.495609, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.034287, "energy": 9.725033, "activity_lines": [ 26.044667, 26.870727, 27.299429, 26.99972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.360001, "volume": 38846845, "typical_volume": 30467818.25, "trend": 25.666667, "fair_value": 16.552051, "relative_strength": 12.853138, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.160687, "energy": 15.629144, "activity_lines": [ 25.493334, 26.188546, 26.992429, 26.933893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.309999, "volume": 36938994, "typical_volume": 29490094.8, "trend": 25.863333, "fair_value": 16.553397, "relative_strength": 2.560837, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.957348, "energy": 22.050048, "activity_lines": [ 24.334667, 25.262182, 26.54, 26.717333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.91, "volume": 26840434, "typical_volume": 29049709.15, "trend": 26.077, "fair_value": 16.562949, "relative_strength": 6.513008, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.124976, "energy": 36.990708, "activity_lines": [ 23.711333, 24.673091, 26.176, 26.526796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.07, "volume": 49010654, "typical_volume": 30248029.6, "trend": 26.196, "fair_value": 16.567756, "relative_strength": -11.437959, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.148297, "energy": 60.725741, "activity_lines": [ 22.184, 23.709273, 25.558857, 26.139247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }