{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86097dbb-ac13-4738-8b30-8517d0fd9b25", "symbol": "SIS", "name": "Simble Solutions Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.043, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.208, "architecture_energy": 72.903, "architecture_maturity": 19.884, "architecture_confidence": 77.394, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.39, "rotation_up": 9.29, "upward_expansion": 16.33, "deceleration": 37.17, "rotation_down": 78.06, "downward_expansion": 94.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.005033, 0.005373, 0.005817, 0.005937 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.005, "trend_reference": 0.00605, "distance_from_trend": -0.173554, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.004673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069959, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.054454, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.166667, "excess_performance": -0.230372, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.173554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016807, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069959, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.313397, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.394557, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.166667, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.711651, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2236071, "relative_activity": 0.379535, "balance": 8.711651, "dry_up": 0.435215, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146154, "annualized_volatility": 0.687557, "from_high_reference": -0.444444, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.00605, "fair_value_reference": 0.004673, "structural_low": 0.0045, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.00397, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.444444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.137931, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.140785, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.545455, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.099281, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.454545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.324675, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.408098, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.333333, "worst_return": -0.62069, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.183978, "energy": 9.324403, "activity_lines": [ 0.006167, 0.006327, 0.006329, 0.006289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.0055, "volume": 1972002, "typical_volume": 6633263.75, "trend": 0.006217, "fair_value": 0.004731, "relative_strength": -5.649365, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.300678, "energy": 22.725652, "activity_lines": [ 0.0059, 0.006164, 0.006255, 0.006244 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.005, "volume": 935750, "typical_volume": 6664734.6, "trend": 0.006217, "fair_value": 0.004718, "relative_strength": -13.843789, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.1252, "energy": 61.996628, "activity_lines": [ 0.005533, 0.005918, 0.006136, 0.006166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.005, "volume": 17492, "typical_volume": 6535221.65, "trend": 0.006217, "fair_value": 0.004699, "relative_strength": -13.586683, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.477353, "energy": 70.34292, "activity_lines": [ 0.0053, 0.0057, 0.006021, 0.006087 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.005, "volume": 7067166, "typical_volume": 5831743.5, "trend": 0.006117, "fair_value": 0.004686, "relative_strength": -15.505393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.566626, "energy": 74.707478, "activity_lines": [ 0.005133, 0.005518, 0.005917, 0.006009 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.005, "volume": 2236071, "typical_volume": 5891611.65, "trend": 0.00605, "fair_value": 0.004673, "relative_strength": -18.054454, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.207549, "energy": 72.902792, "activity_lines": [ 0.005033, 0.005373, 0.005817, 0.005937 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }