{ "ticker": { "uuid": "860d7433-21f2-4de7-b07c-e43da2b31c40", "symbol": "MATW", "name": "Amundi ETF ICAV - Amundi S&P World Materials Screened UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.058, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.977, "architecture_energy": 17.27, "architecture_maturity": 19.962, "architecture_confidence": 80.457, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.82, "rotation_up": 33.88, "upward_expansion": 48.62, "deceleration": 79.17, "rotation_down": 30.4, "downward_expansion": 28.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.082, 15.084291, 15.101829, 15.016456 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.708, "trend_reference": 14.887667, "distance_from_trend": 0.055102, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.393231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267466, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.712903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092047, "excess_performance": -0.078845, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055102, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05374, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267466, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019027, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027129, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092047, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.094435, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 246464, "relative_activity": 2.505878, "balance": 1.094435, "dry_up": 1.085481, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031233, "annualized_volatility": 0.236412, "from_high_reference": -0.013193, "from_low_reference": 0.335033 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.887667, "fair_value_reference": 12.393231, "structural_low": 13.13, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.007087, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.009115, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.033498, "worst_return": -0.108814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.000145, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.063959, "worst_return": -0.063669, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.089057, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.028427, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.244245, "worst_return": -0.066131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.161963, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.08631, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161963, "worst_return": 0.161963, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012635, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002203, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028176, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003136, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012348, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05236, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104131, "active": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 14.666, "volume": 25081, "typical_volume": 97689.2, "trend": 14.715267, "fair_value": 12.312474, "relative_strength": -5.913399, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.513814, "energy": 11.652052, "activity_lines": [ 14.987733, 15.095055, 15.05261, 14.953699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.91, "volume": 108312, "typical_volume": 93986.5, "trend": 14.772467, "fair_value": 12.336795, "relative_strength": -4.20457, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.857989, "energy": 15.353674, "activity_lines": [ 14.9308, 15.054109, 15.051743, 14.966262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.668, "volume": 47190, "typical_volume": 90642.55, "trend": 14.825533, "fair_value": 12.361218, "relative_strength": -6.40669, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.875411, "energy": 22.341771, "activity_lines": [ 14.8184, 14.970727, 15.027667, 14.959523 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.708, "volume": 246464, "typical_volume": 98354.35, "trend": 14.887667, "fair_value": 12.393231, "relative_strength": -2.712903, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.977114, "energy": 17.269923, "activity_lines": [ 15.082, 15.084291, 15.101829, 15.016456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }