{ "ticker": { "uuid": "860f77a5-204c-4819-a95f-ed0131ade412", "symbol": "DIAM", "name": "Star Diamond Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.83, "architecture_energy": 67.555, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.447, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 12.2, "upward_expansion": 13.61, "deceleration": 39.94, "rotation_down": 69.8, "downward_expansion": 86.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.022, 0.024182, 0.027238, 0.029075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.031667, "distance_from_trend": -0.368421, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.054231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.631206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.104475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.620421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.368421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11215, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.631206, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.501045, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.453345, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 887200, "relative_activity": 1.211426, "balance": 2.453345, "dry_up": 0.90857, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.269231, "annualized_volatility": 1.202506, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.031667, "fair_value_reference": 0.054231, "structural_low": 0.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.212121, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.040459, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.162114, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.134367, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.254274, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.25179, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.555556, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.428571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.6, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"down", "direction": -81.367298, "energy": 71.39165, "activity_lines": [ 0.026667, 0.028182, 0.030667, 0.032043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.03, "volume": 854500, "typical_volume": 712665.0, "trend": 0.033667, "fair_value": 0.056154, "relative_strength": -29.217834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.3406, "energy": 55.470247, "activity_lines": [ 0.027333, 0.028364, 0.030524, 0.031806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.03, "volume": 852400, "typical_volume": 724870.0, "trend": 0.033333, "fair_value": 0.055705, "relative_strength": -27.573141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.07147, "energy": 43.987126, "activity_lines": [ 0.028, 0.028545, 0.030381, 0.03157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.02, "volume": 235300, "typical_volume": 705920.0, "trend": 0.033, "fair_value": 0.055256, "relative_strength": -50.850714, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.723077, "energy": 72.726662, "activity_lines": [ 0.025333, 0.026909, 0.029286, 0.03071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 686700, "typical_volume": 722090.0, "trend": 0.032333, "fair_value": 0.054744, "relative_strength": -49.569959, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.792443, "energy": 65.002694, "activity_lines": [ 0.023333, 0.025455, 0.028238, 0.029871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 887200, "typical_volume": 732360.0, "trend": 0.031667, "fair_value": 0.054231, "relative_strength": -50.104475, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.830383, "energy": 67.555151, "activity_lines": [ 0.022, 0.024182, 0.027238, 0.029075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }