{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86108d4b-62f3-40e2-a4a2-942e2b06c73b", "symbol": "LULU", "name": "lululemon athletica inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.25, "architecture_energy": 45.392, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.408, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.89, "rotation_up": 27.84, "upward_expansion": 19.87, "deceleration": 46.19, "rotation_down": 39.39, "downward_expansion": 67.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 2085.072005, 2065.326549, 2137.301619, 2299.953332 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2151.0, "trend_reference": 2548.587663, "distance_from_trend": -0.156003, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5211.69448, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.587274, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.790653, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.278887, "excess_performance": -0.22422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.156003, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154533, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.587274, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006783, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.277907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278887, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468336, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3817, "relative_activity": 0.903796, "balance": 0.468336, "dry_up": 0.607049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063523, "annualized_volatility": 0.408856, "from_high_reference": -0.468889, "from_low_reference": 0.126178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2548.587663, "fair_value_reference": 5211.69448, "structural_low": 1910.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.005985, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017388, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.1844, "worst_return": -0.287338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.067585, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.083594, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.204247, "worst_return": -0.331984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.066091, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.105026, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.097208, "worst_return": -0.413727, "sufficient": true 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2020.0, "volume": 2744, "typical_volume": 4314.35, "trend": 2655.528662, "fair_value": 5269.285698, "relative_strength": -33.369682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.997256, "energy": 58.976264, "activity_lines": [ 2047.6, 2050.045273, 2178.86976, 2366.543417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2070.77002, "volume": 1182, "typical_volume": 4180.7, "trend": 2598.387663, "fair_value": 5240.232941, "relative_strength": -31.309598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.099559, "energy": 50.36696, "activity_lines": [ 2053.990007, 2049.222914, 2152.438477, 2328.817053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2151.0, "volume": 3817, "typical_volume": 4223.3, "trend": 2548.587663, "fair_value": 5211.69448, "relative_strength": -27.790653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.249687, "energy": 45.39218, "activity_lines": [ 2085.072005, 2065.326549, 2137.301619, 2299.953332 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }