{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8618288a-e0fa-4562-8dde-c5fd79cd81bd", "symbol": "STHO", "name": "Star Holdings", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 72.85, "architecture_energy": 56.976, "architecture_maturity": 35.402, "architecture_confidence": 80.838, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.65, "rotation_up": 65.46, "upward_expansion": 84.6, "deceleration": 50.42, "rotation_down": 18.03, "downward_expansion": 8.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.424667, 9.315364, 9.071786, 8.854763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.64, "trend_reference": 8.626167, "distance_from_trend": 0.11753, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.150962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050336, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.028221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.215637, "excess_performance": 0.028183, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11753, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060681, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050336, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128995, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010282, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091893, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215637, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.280845, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130654, "relative_activity": 1.521151, "balance": 2.280845, "dry_up": 0.921191, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048174, "annualized_volatility": 0.275224, "from_high_reference": -0.014315, "from_low_reference": 0.375178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.626167, "fair_value_reference": 10.150962, "structural_low": 7.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0311, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.024243, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.100239, "worst_return": -0.104693, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.073406, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.104124, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.077153, "worst_return": -0.282308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.243862, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.165615, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066185, "worst_return": -0.421538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }