{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86250201-3f45-4f23-aafa-2a80de2820c2", "symbol": "BX", "name": "Blackstone Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 79.052, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.4, "architecture_energy": 58.185, "architecture_maturity": 11.377, "architecture_confidence": 53.047, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.27, "rotation_up": 71.74, "upward_expansion": 63.82, "deceleration": 18.45, "rotation_down": 17.97, "downward_expansion": 19.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 130.095732, 126.431374, 123.46201, 121.731437 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 137.13, "trend_reference": 122.742623, "distance_from_trend": 0.117216, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 132.641867, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033836, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.006889, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.079433, "excess_performance": -0.046192, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117216, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059627, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033836, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078863, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122955, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079433, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.35078, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23030724, "relative_activity": 0.850221, "balance": 1.35078, "dry_up": 0.947174, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070916, "annualized_volatility": 0.335565, "from_high_reference": -0.256953, "from_low_reference": 0.360683 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 122.742623, "fair_value_reference": 132.641867, "structural_low": 100.780247, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023333, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001939, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.056695, "worst_return": -0.138623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.085033, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122118, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.067957, "worst_return": -0.102109, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.028801, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.07563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073978, "worst_return": -0.016376, "sufficient": false }, { 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132.135709, "relative_strength": -14.052617, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.682035, "energy": 31.785718, "activity_lines": [ 124.736926, 122.667519, 121.059465, 120.695028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 126.537986, "volume": 29967176, "typical_volume": 30243289.75, "trend": 123.318221, "fair_value": 132.342004, "relative_strength": -15.671829, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.381657, "energy": 38.538772, "activity_lines": [ 126.02226, 123.659518, 121.805772, 120.840355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.13, "volume": 23030724, "typical_volume": 27087920.15, "trend": 122.742623, "fair_value": 132.641867, "relative_strength": -11.006889, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.3998, "energy": 58.185309, "activity_lines": [ 130.095732, 126.431374, 123.46201, 121.731437 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }