{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86277a33-91d1-4da5-9fd4-80dc6fc73d87", "symbol": "BBVA", "name": "Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.484, "architecture_energy": 92.426, "architecture_maturity": 31.42, "architecture_confidence": 82.533, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.14, "rotation_up": 82.81, "upward_expansion": 97.3, "deceleration": 41.98, "rotation_down": 9.59, "downward_expansion": 21.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.158, 26.192545, 24.790693, 23.959519 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.35, "trend_reference": 23.280746, "distance_from_trend": 0.217744, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.881666, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.042262, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.550892, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.21356, "excess_performance": 0.087936, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.217744, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057418, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.042262, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.238419, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.165509, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.13226, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.21356, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.491741, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11131019, "relative_activity": 1.378077, "balance": 2.491741, "dry_up": 0.940404, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046574, "annualized_volatility": 0.322512, "from_high_reference": -0.010471, "from_low_reference": 0.674894 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.280746, "fair_value_reference": 13.881666, "structural_low": 19.637215, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.030473, "positive_rate": 0.789474, "directional_follow_through": 0.789474, "median_excess_return": 0.020782, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.240597, "worst_return": -0.168345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.118286, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.102751, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.327986, "worst_return": -0.046274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.31051, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.225789, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.602366, "worst_return": 0.036415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 76.437254, "activity_lines": [ 25.232, 24.495636, 23.518163, 23.096709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.95, "volume": 4584822, "typical_volume": 8067043.35, "trend": 22.945641, "fair_value": 13.604393, "relative_strength": 13.03464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.961691, "energy": 82.088199, "activity_lines": [ 25.53, 24.877636, 23.83229, 23.298067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.95, "volume": 9042953, "typical_volume": 8056802.35, "trend": 23.10184, "fair_value": 13.742476, "relative_strength": 19.567169, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.253583, "energy": 89.152027, "activity_lines": [ 26.396667, 25.549455, 24.311774, 23.620928 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.35, "volume": 11131019, "typical_volume": 8077208.95, "trend": 23.280746, "fair_value": 13.881666, "relative_strength": 16.550892, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.484038, "energy": 92.426077, "activity_lines": [ 27.158, 26.192545, 24.790693, 23.959519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }