{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86296743-1a32-4b11-9e1a-18f908a34475", "symbol": "600698", "name": "Hunan Tyen Machinery Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.73, "architecture_energy": 24.657, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.926, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.33, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 15.15, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 33.08, "downward_expansion": 65.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.451333, 6.327636, 6.579381, 6.881269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.56, "trend_reference": 7.361, "distance_from_trend": -0.108817, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.338269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034983, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.550998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.203883, "excess_performance": -0.16068, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.108817, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119322, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.034983, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.196703, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23551, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004934, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203883, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.778384, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98772426, "relative_activity": 1.079506, "balance": 0.778384, "dry_up": 1.555061, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099085, "annualized_volatility": 0.589015, "from_high_reference": -0.559732, "from_low_reference": 0.20367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.361, "fair_value_reference": 6.338269, "structural_low": 5.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.010799, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.007053, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.266497, "worst_return": -0.164258, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015119, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015481, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.383234, "worst_return": -0.217672, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.070168, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006364, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.198704, "worst_return": -0.385776, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 88579232.4, "trend": 7.443667, "fair_value": 6.325577, "relative_strength": -22.468121, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.294461, "energy": 35.274709, "activity_lines": [ 6.336667, 6.288727, 6.61281, 6.93828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.56, "volume": 98772426, "typical_volume": 91497791.6, "trend": 7.361, "fair_value": 6.338269, "relative_strength": -23.550998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.72992, "energy": 24.657434, "activity_lines": [ 6.451333, 6.327636, 6.579381, 6.881269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }