{ "ticker": { "uuid": "862a2581-2791-4811-b8a9-087471d25cb4", "symbol": "CSAN", "name": "Cosan SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.859, "architecture_energy": 33.318, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.927, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.72, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 21.42, "deceleration": 46.31, "rotation_down": 31.59, "downward_expansion": 57.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.035333, 2.985091, 3.142571, 3.400645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.88, "trend_reference": 3.734, "distance_from_trend": -0.228709, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.624231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.622257, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.684193, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.348416, "excess_performance": -0.474041, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228709, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122272, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.622257, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.376842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.348416, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.219131, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5485494, "relative_activity": 0.595229, "balance": 0.219131, "dry_up": 0.528311, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122604, "annualized_volatility": 0.52989, "from_high_reference": -0.5204, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.734, "fair_value_reference": 7.624231, "structural_low": 2.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.028812, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.032628, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.425693, "worst_return": -0.260526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.063883, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.133111, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.296652, "worst_return": -0.387471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.099726, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.292715, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.181065, "worst_return": -0.445476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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2.994727, 3.196571, 3.457935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.88, "volume": 5485494, "typical_volume": 9215769.2, "trend": 3.734, "fair_value": 7.624231, "relative_strength": -37.684193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.859462, "energy": 33.318424, "activity_lines": [ 3.035333, 2.985091, 3.142571, 3.400645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }