{ "ticker": { "uuid": "862c3e2a-f621-4eec-9fa1-cddd2a3b1753", "symbol": "MERC", "name": "Mercer International Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.516, "architecture_energy": 61.032, "architecture_maturity": 97.201, "architecture_confidence": 95.231, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.23, "rotation_up": 25.71, "upward_expansion": 10.13, "deceleration": 59.72, "rotation_down": 62.75, "downward_expansion": 88.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.631013, 0.677531, 0.79553, 0.95576 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.5938, "trend_reference": 1.246323, "distance_from_trend": -0.523559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.158516, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.884889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -71.143796, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.648639, "excess_performance": -0.836093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.523559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244805, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.884889, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.711438, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038648, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.648639, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2456039, "relative_activity": 0.909852, "balance": 0.648531, "dry_up": 0.900054, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.294466, "annualized_volatility": 0.774279, "from_high_reference": -0.82432, "from_low_reference": 0.1208 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.246323, "fair_value_reference": 5.158516, "structural_low": 0.5298, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.019908, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.062186, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 0.2, "worst_return": -0.383495, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.09637, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.1806, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.192501, "worst_return": -0.620072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.210892, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.379153, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.07758, "worst_return": -0.561983, "sufficient": true }, { 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-69.850822, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.338054, "energy": 67.869367, "activity_lines": [ 0.693627, 0.766162, 0.899514, 1.095907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.671, "volume": 2202866, "typical_volume": 2703248.75, "trend": 1.355797, "fair_value": 5.250941, "relative_strength": -67.494834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.137586, "energy": 64.296239, "activity_lines": [ 0.6763, 0.737927, 0.863976, 1.048761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.632, "volume": 1576805, "typical_volume": 2677776.1, "trend": 1.31153, "fair_value": 5.20125, "relative_strength": -68.641149, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.884827, "energy": 63.345642, "activity_lines": [ 0.658507, 0.707493, 0.829529, 1.002065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5938, "volume": 2456039, "typical_volume": 2699384.25, "trend": 1.246323, "fair_value": 5.158516, "relative_strength": -71.143796, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.516274, "energy": 61.031697, "activity_lines": [ 0.631013, 0.677531, 0.79553, 0.95576 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }