{ "ticker": { "uuid": "862c54a4-dc50-4f66-933a-530b1c784732", "symbol": "PEU", "name": "Invesco EuroMTS Cash 3 Months UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.555, "architecture_energy": 70.912, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 63.296, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.69, "rotation_up": 76.32, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 55.56, "rotation_down": 17.15, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 109.189332, 109.10909, 108.954143, 108.808839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 109.279999, "trend_reference": 108.605, "distance_from_trend": 0.006215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 105.476992, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.560536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.010542, "excess_performance": -0.16035, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006215, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003861, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036055, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001333, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.135605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010542, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.656087, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19804, "relative_activity": 1.289797, "balance": 15.656087, "dry_up": 1.517778, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001471, "annualized_volatility": 0.0022, "from_high_reference": -0.003374, "from_low_reference": 0.021022 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.605, "fair_value_reference": 105.476992, "structural_low": 107.849998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.002167, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015345, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.003611, "worst_return": 0.000379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.006833, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.056482, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.011041, "worst_return": 0.004809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013712, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092466, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.020131, "worst_return": 0.009711, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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85.054595, "activity_lines": [ 109.040666, 108.964545, 108.814858, 108.675807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 109.139999, "volume": 44986, "typical_volume": 16349.95, "trend": 108.519667, "fair_value": 105.365069, "relative_strength": -11.295821, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.377964, "energy": 69.311698, "activity_lines": [ 109.082665, 109.009272, 108.858905, 108.718603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 109.199997, "volume": 14828, "typical_volume": 15506.2, "trend": 108.561667, "fair_value": 105.420966, "relative_strength": -11.457335, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.144261, "energy": 64.682845, "activity_lines": [ 109.129331, 109.056181, 108.904762, 108.762495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.279999, "volume": 19804, "typical_volume": 15354.35, "trend": 108.605, "fair_value": 105.476992, "relative_strength": -13.560536, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.555446, "energy": 70.911949, "activity_lines": [ 109.189332, 109.10909, 108.954143, 108.808839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }