{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86332a37-91a5-46f9-9991-bdfb7568e9cc", "symbol": "NTRP", "name": "NextTrip Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.199, "architecture_energy": 75.415, "architecture_maturity": 76.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.663, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 14.61, "upward_expansion": 16.91, "deceleration": 38.67, "rotation_down": 71.66, "downward_expansion": 92.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.737667, 1.879455, 2.112867, 2.308563 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.67, "trend_reference": 2.565033, "distance_from_trend": -0.348936, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.920487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.428177, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.352023, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.454248, "excess_performance": -0.641702, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.348936, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190385, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.428177, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325076, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.53352, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158834, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.454248, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.136546, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 295599, "relative_activity": 0.447136, "balance": 0.136546, "dry_up": 2.98633, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.201207, "annualized_volatility": 0.677864, "from_high_reference": -0.678846, "from_low_reference": 0.050314 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.565033, "fair_value_reference": 2.920487, "structural_low": 1.59, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.049669, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004187, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.779874, "worst_return": -0.130252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.389444, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.297319, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.150943, "worst_return": -0.410909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.257862, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.30586, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.814829, "worst_return": -0.463576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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-53.352023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.199242, "energy": 75.415315, "activity_lines": [ 1.737667, 1.879455, 2.112867, 2.308563 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }