{ "ticker": { "uuid": "863c762b-3404-4187-99a8-353bd826f6c1", "symbol": "RLI", "name": "Reliance Industries Limited", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.418, "architecture_energy": 36.771, "architecture_maturity": 58.116, "architecture_confidence": 87.707, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.75, "rotation_up": 22.87, "upward_expansion": 4.2, "deceleration": 54.72, "rotation_down": 46.82, "downward_expansion": 75.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.653334, 47.827273, 48.209823, 48.984984 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.400002, "trend_reference": 50.163182, "distance_from_trend": -0.035149, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 56.673127, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.954423, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113553, "excess_performance": -0.2878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035149, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069211, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14598, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044659, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.259544, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039978, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113553, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.019185, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.009567, "balance": 1.019185, "dry_up": 0.047835, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035768, "annualized_volatility": 0.18274, "from_high_reference": -0.203947, "from_low_reference": 0.061404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.163182, "fair_value_reference": 56.673127, "structural_low": 45.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.010309, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.013336, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.18677, "worst_return": -0.09204, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.054327, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.06271, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.157088, "worst_return": -0.109848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035839, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.183121, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.097182, "worst_return": -0.159744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082192, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026515, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049123, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", 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"close": 47.799999, "volume": 3, "typical_volume": 222.1, "trend": 51.293182, "fair_value": 56.81468, "relative_strength": -25.55371, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.869059, "energy": 30.983254, "activity_lines": [ 48.22, 48.048194, 48.716424, 49.64775 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.5, "volume": 12, "typical_volume": 216.7, "trend": 50.856516, "fair_value": 56.758136, "relative_strength": -27.95678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.395584, "energy": 45.995013, "activity_lines": [ 47.586666, 47.776858, 48.430732, 49.338513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.400002, "volume": 23, "typical_volume": 208.95, "trend": 50.423182, "fair_value": 56.714959, "relative_strength": -25.880872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.740374, "energy": 43.566794, "activity_lines": [ 47.4, 47.698995, 48.259801, 49.115512 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.400002, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 209.05, "trend": 50.163182, "fair_value": 56.673127, "relative_strength": -25.954423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.417658, "energy": 36.771031, "activity_lines": [ 47.653334, 47.827273, 48.209823, 48.984984 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }