{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86578a83-7fa3-42fa-a454-566f0439f0b8", "symbol": "688687", "name": "Beijing Kawin Technology Share-Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.329, "architecture_energy": 38.094, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.405, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.84, "rotation_up": 25.88, "upward_expansion": 12.04, "deceleration": 66.85, "rotation_down": 42.65, "downward_expansion": 71.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.404666, 16.353636, 17.044222, 17.979393 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.559999, "trend_reference": 19.520004, "distance_from_trend": -0.10041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.92233, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.295411, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.953591, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.200728, "excess_performance": -0.157524, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.10041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144972, "read": "Falling" 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"structural_low": 15.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.022461, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.009314, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.331606, "worst_return": -0.137652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.205041, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.073999, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.507856, "worst_return": -0.21177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.142104, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.126686, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.674574, "worst_return": -0.359467, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.276372, "energy": 53.948349, "activity_lines": [ 16.502667, 16.54853, 17.668795, 18.738792 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.03, "volume": 17167989, "typical_volume": 13128401.5, "trend": 20.082338, "fair_value": 25.014281, "relative_strength": -35.88246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.375435, "energy": 55.894184, "activity_lines": [ 16.06, 16.21691, 17.325271, 18.390856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.91, "volume": 10261692, "typical_volume": 13026169.1, "trend": 19.765338, "fair_value": 24.940567, "relative_strength": -31.347187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.886876, "energy": 51.605862, "activity_lines": [ 15.987333, 16.115091, 17.094699, 18.121673 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.559999, "volume": 15617278, "typical_volume": 13151495.2, "trend": 19.520004, "fair_value": 24.92233, "relative_strength": -24.953591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.328627, "energy": 38.094111, "activity_lines": [ 16.404666, 16.353636, 17.044222, 17.979393 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }