{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8659f2c3-54df-4141-9d4e-830e68fda22b", "symbol": "JLP", "name": "Jubilee Metals Group PLC", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.795, "architecture_energy": 44.244, "architecture_maturity": 69.557, "architecture_confidence": 84.158, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.84, "rotation_up": 26.51, "upward_expansion": 6.81, "deceleration": 59.77, "rotation_down": 48.11, "downward_expansion": 80.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025027, 0.025271, 0.02655, 0.028685 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.03248, "distance_from_trend": -0.230296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.045447, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.449914, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -27.619452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.468085, "excess_performance": -0.51932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.230296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055494, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.449914, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276195, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.468085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.351073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15922172, "relative_activity": 0.585043, "balance": 2.351073, "dry_up": 0.774736, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117138, "annualized_volatility": 0.445589, "from_high_reference": -0.519231, "from_low_reference": 0.134816 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.03248, "fair_value_reference": 0.045447, "structural_low": 0.02203, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.609756, "median_excess_return": -0.038898, "regime_survival": 0.902439, "best_return": 0.252174, "worst_return": -0.291667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.090291, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.133971, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.20082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.165278, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.203285, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.016393, "worst_return": -0.269426, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.04636, "relative_strength": -22.689529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.646968, "energy": 56.968225, "activity_lines": [ 0.025633, 0.026271, 0.027709, 0.030332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.024, "volume": 20164620, "typical_volume": 30701546.25, "trend": 0.03326, "fair_value": 0.046039, "relative_strength": -30.318241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.774761, "energy": 54.413436, "activity_lines": [ 0.025067, 0.025709, 0.027192, 0.029721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0251, "volume": 12353756, "typical_volume": 29612569.9, "trend": 0.032897, "fair_value": 0.045726, "relative_strength": -27.503077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.993713, "energy": 47.896118, "activity_lines": [ 0.025033, 0.025455, 0.026849, 0.029194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 15922172, "typical_volume": 27215403.75, "trend": 0.03248, "fair_value": 0.045447, "relative_strength": -27.619452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.794963, "energy": 44.244193, "activity_lines": [ 0.025027, 0.025271, 0.02655, 0.028685 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }