{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86646980-8edc-4f55-8e69-88b7a188fa67", "symbol": "FESA3", "name": "Cia de Ferro Ligas da Bahia S.A. - FERBASA", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.42, "architecture_energy": 72.103, "architecture_maturity": 20.154, "architecture_confidence": 89.833, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.5, "rotation_up": 16.61, "upward_expansion": 14.93, "deceleration": 44.56, "rotation_down": 71.02, "downward_expansion": 90.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.191333, 10.369091, 10.959619, 11.27228 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.42, "trend_reference": 11.602667, "distance_from_trend": -0.101931, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.141332, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.141775, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.104772, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116949, "excess_performance": -0.059901, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.101931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025532, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.141775, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167104, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121048, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054825, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.096774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.892857, "balance": 0.096774, "dry_up": 1.428571, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038978, "annualized_volatility": 0.237029, "from_high_reference": -0.228148, "from_low_reference": 0.068718 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.602667, "fair_value_reference": 12.141332, "structural_low": 9.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.022463, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.004192, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.314607, "worst_return": -0.084507, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.008665, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.031112, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.142212, "worst_return": -0.108324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.015298, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.075091, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.203555, "worst_return": -0.124451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.108875, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066372, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006791, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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-12.459644, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.546776, "energy": 18.436271, "activity_lines": [ 11.938, 11.963818, 11.888, 11.733516 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "close": 12.39, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 3205.0, "trend": 11.543008, "fair_value": 12.353619, "relative_strength": -16.462219, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.850318, "energy": 29.228311, "activity_lines": [ 12.118667, 12.036, 11.947429, 11.790066 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-17", "close": 12.27, "volume": 600, "typical_volume": 2990.0, "trend": 11.582801, "fair_value": 12.349684, "relative_strength": -15.969432, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.269135, "energy": 38.433474, "activity_lines": [ 12.218, 12.079273, 11.991476, 11.836968 ] }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "close": 12.65, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 3115.0, "trend": 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12.092, 12.251273, 12.173857, 12.065699 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 11.35, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1940.0, "trend": 11.885, "fair_value": 12.291909, "relative_strength": -7.334758, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.092721, "energy": 30.252418, "activity_lines": [ 11.790667, 12.084, 12.10081, 12.029785 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 11.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1875.0, "trend": 11.876667, "fair_value": 12.279262, "relative_strength": -10.407413, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.57309, "energy": 52.09375, "activity_lines": [ 11.476, 11.867636, 12.002524, 11.975914 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.09, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 1290.0, "trend": 11.861, "fair_value": 12.266872, "relative_strength": -8.323316, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.209397, "energy": 69.521902, "activity_lines": [ 11.281333, 11.684364, 11.911524, 11.925161 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.54, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 1105.0, "trend": 11.843667, "fair_value": 12.250957, "relative_strength": -14.887752, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.134283, "energy": 86.967841, "activity_lines": [ 10.973333, 11.424727, 11.772476, 11.839935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.65, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 950.0, "trend": 11.815333, "fair_value": 12.235746, "relative_strength": -14.057841, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.333376, "energy": 89.679457, "activity_lines": [ 10.808667, 11.216545, 11.649905, 11.762925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.3, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 1075.0, "trend": 11.754, "fair_value": 12.218292, "relative_strength": -18.09154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.06702, "energy": 93.649796, "activity_lines": [ 10.596667, 10.981091, 11.503286, 11.665161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.3, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 1110.0, "trend": 11.737333, "fair_value": 12.196572, "relative_strength": -15.506039, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.896673, "energy": 91.752103, "activity_lines": [ 10.454667, 10.788364, 11.365286, 11.571355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.29, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 1140.0, "trend": 11.706667, "fair_value": 12.178699, "relative_strength": -15.133183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.329803, "energy": 90.897647, "activity_lines": [ 10.359333, 10.636545, 11.235286, 11.477978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.75, "volume": 2600, "typical_volume": 1230.0, "trend": 11.651667, "fair_value": 12.157365, "relative_strength": -20.789991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.52728, "energy": 96.350785, "activity_lines": [ 10.137333, 10.420182, 11.060905, 11.351742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.42, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 1120.0, "trend": 11.602667, "fair_value": 12.141332, "relative_strength": -12.104772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.42024, "energy": 72.103187, "activity_lines": [ 10.191333, 10.369091, 10.959619, 11.27228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }