{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8668a48f-05a3-4ab2-8fef-774710d6f601", "symbol": "MAR", "name": "Marriott International, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.296, "architecture_energy": 16.968, "architecture_maturity": 62.134, "architecture_confidence": 71.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.07, "rotation_up": 15.95, "upward_expansion": 52.79, "deceleration": 93.93, "rotation_down": 34.62, "downward_expansion": 21.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 320.430001, 325.357272, 323.819246, 316.239261 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 309.700012, "trend_reference": 305.369894, "distance_from_trend": 0.01418, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 239.300482, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.192519, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.110784, "excess_performance": -0.063463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01418, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085216, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095269, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.110784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.229167, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 355, "relative_activity": 8.179724, "balance": 0.229167, "dry_up": 3.732719, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042343, "annualized_volatility": 0.235826, "from_high_reference": -0.106205, "from_low_reference": 0.423588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 305.369894, "fair_value_reference": 239.300482, "structural_low": 270.224694, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.052139, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023914, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.131266, "worst_return": -0.173271, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.075972, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.029493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193343, "worst_return": -0.282489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.15546, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.139611, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.287215, "worst_return": -0.128309, 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"trend": 302.376045, "fair_value": 237.564089, "relative_strength": 0.705566, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.641092, "energy": 28.997105, "activity_lines": [ 326.67333, 330.521815, 323.387447, 314.460511 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 324.649994, "volume": 147, "typical_volume": 25.65, "trend": 304.403338, "fair_value": 238.496346, "relative_strength": -0.874697, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.824488, "energy": 26.041994, "activity_lines": [ 325.859996, 329.365451, 324.422742, 315.89754 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 309.700012, "volume": 355, "typical_volume": 43.4, "trend": 305.369894, "fair_value": 239.300482, "relative_strength": -8.192519, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.296265, "energy": 16.968437, "activity_lines": [ 320.430001, 325.357272, 323.819246, 316.239261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }