{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8669d09f-da25-4fd5-be1a-bd4fa33dab02", "symbol": "301061", "name": "MotoMotion China Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.602, "architecture_energy": 55.073, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.83, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.59, "rotation_up": 27.88, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.96, "rotation_down": 46.07, "downward_expansion": 72.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.32, 35.885273, 39.509641, 44.398477 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.5, "trend_reference": 51.442723, "distance_from_trend": -0.271034, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.751342, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.035118, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.448464, "excess_performance": -0.455864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.271034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202542, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101825, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.357414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420351, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035793, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.448464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620299, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18646831, "relative_activity": 1.864573, "balance": 0.620299, "dry_up": 1.804858, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098035, "annualized_volatility": 0.38309, "from_high_reference": -0.584037, "from_low_reference": 0.168224 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.442723, "fair_value_reference": 41.751342, "structural_low": 32.099998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.123649, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.152637, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.074116, "worst_return": -0.172246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.246048, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.365029, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.246048, "worst_return": -0.246048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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37.68, "volume": 23374903, "typical_volume": 9398920.1, "trend": 52.595748, "fair_value": 41.622494, "relative_strength": -39.589874, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.259566, "energy": 63.849933, "activity_lines": [ 35.518, 35.761637, 40.208748, 45.372397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.5, "volume": 18646831, "typical_volume": 10000590.65, "trend": 51.442723, "fair_value": 41.751342, "relative_strength": -42.035118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.602017, "energy": 55.073145, "activity_lines": [ 36.32, 35.885273, 39.509641, 44.398477 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }