{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8669f421-1600-40b6-8e39-fbfcd4a0b351", "symbol": "JPNCHF", "name": "UBS Core MSCI Japan UCITS ETF hCHF acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.952, "architecture_energy": 28.154, "architecture_maturity": 58.718, "architecture_confidence": 84.113, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.21, "rotation_up": 37.47, "upward_expansion": 63.24, "deceleration": 82.61, "rotation_down": 27.11, "downward_expansion": 19.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.012, 41.177909, 40.651476, 39.940161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.73, "trend_reference": 39.101, "distance_from_trend": 0.067236, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.738824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.403216, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.150266, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.081368, "excess_performance": -0.001515, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.067236, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.403216, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004646, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031503, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.081368, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.532859, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75447, "relative_activity": 1.389652, "balance": 3.532859, "dry_up": 1.065756, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032996, "annualized_volatility": 0.202704, "from_high_reference": -0.023288, "from_low_reference": 0.3673 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.101, "fair_value_reference": 29.738824, "structural_low": 35.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025854, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.00394, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.068928, "worst_return": -0.031257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.122759, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.026667, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.154865, "worst_return": -0.097872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.103913, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199909, "worst_return": 0.003145, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008925, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010326, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014931, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073232, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00842, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.756982, "energy": 80.007268, "activity_lines": [ 41.756334, 41.254182, 40.074405, 39.378989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.174999, "volume": 77747, "typical_volume": 66237.4, "trend": 38.545, "fair_value": 29.373953, "relative_strength": 1.388279, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.053388, "energy": 48.702374, "activity_lines": [ 41.269667, 41.144545, 40.173595, 39.495623 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.244999, "volume": 51964, "typical_volume": 61516.8, "trend": 38.757167, "fair_value": 29.496292, "relative_strength": 3.92148, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.315758, "energy": 40.008502, "activity_lines": [ 41.165666, 41.214636, 40.372238, 39.669817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.150002, "volume": 26290, "typical_volume": 58411.5, "trend": 38.9325, "fair_value": 29.612863, "relative_strength": 0.819038, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.158955, "energy": 26.884496, "activity_lines": [ 40.783667, 41.055091, 40.445143, 39.759677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.73, "volume": 75447, "typical_volume": 54292.0, "trend": 39.101, "fair_value": 29.738824, "relative_strength": 3.150266, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.951979, "energy": 28.154344, "activity_lines": [ 41.012, 41.177909, 40.651476, 39.940161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }