{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8671a060-4ca1-4d0b-8314-099affc46794", "symbol": "SPYT", "name": "TIDAL TRUST II DEFIANCE S&P 500 INCOME TARGET ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 61.372, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.516, "architecture_energy": 40.112, "architecture_maturity": 29.86, "architecture_confidence": 55.754, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.44, "rotation_up": 45.92, "upward_expansion": 71.02, "deceleration": 65.29, "rotation_down": 25.29, "downward_expansion": 9.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.153955, 17.09178, 17.043849, 16.824041 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.54, "trend_reference": 16.578756, "distance_from_trend": 0.05798, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.822715, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.183319, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.890324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077385, "excess_performance": -0.04824, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05798, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020997, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.183319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010442, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038903, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009481, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077385, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.167644, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 750595, "relative_activity": 1.13574, "balance": 2.167644, "dry_up": 0.861249, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022699, "annualized_volatility": 0.130065, "from_high_reference": -0.003975, "from_low_reference": 0.16879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.578756, "fair_value_reference": 14.822715, "structural_low": 15.006967, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021844, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002409, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.021844, "worst_return": 0.021844, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, 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"activity_lines": [ 17.013464, 17.063014, 16.911169, 16.703555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.845352, "volume": 377652, "typical_volume": 663115.45, "trend": 16.508576, "fair_value": 14.783418, "relative_strength": -3.631517, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.05063, "energy": 21.111411, "activity_lines": [ 16.948716, 17.015751, 16.932934, 16.726574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.017494, "volume": 663488, "typical_volume": 650012.3, "trend": 16.538178, "fair_value": 14.801149, "relative_strength": -3.591365, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.491055, "energy": 21.792127, "activity_lines": [ 16.966999, 17.004211, 16.966689, 16.759408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.54, "volume": 750595, "typical_volume": 660886.05, "trend": 16.578756, "fair_value": 14.822715, "relative_strength": -3.890324, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.516435, "energy": 40.111823, "activity_lines": [ 17.153955, 17.09178, 17.043849, 16.824041 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }