{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86792db6-0929-443e-bbf8-0586469f0903", "symbol": "ETS", "name": "EuroTeleSites AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.716, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.746, "architecture_energy": 16.584, "architecture_maturity": 4.106, "architecture_confidence": 78.089, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.31, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 10.99, "deceleration": 50.26, "rotation_down": 41.59, "downward_expansion": 45.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.498, 4.503273, 4.537762, 4.545312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.55, "trend_reference": 4.544, "distance_from_trend": 0.00132, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.463079, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.019475, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.841999, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053241, "excess_performance": -0.121006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00132, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011888, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.019475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041847, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20842, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053241, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.621866, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8544, "relative_activity": 0.407768, "balance": 0.621866, "dry_up": 0.715216, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040068, "annualized_volatility": 0.200152, "from_high_reference": -0.107843, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.544, "fair_value_reference": 4.463079, "structural_low": 4.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.001022, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.024323, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.04646, "worst_return": -0.058091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.034783, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.186707, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.027027, "worst_return": -0.059305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.092025, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.224491, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.092025, "worst_return": -0.092025, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088409, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.059305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017204, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": 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"relative_strength": -21.642064, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.157579, "energy": 49.502987, "activity_lines": [ 4.457333, 4.501091, 4.541429, 4.547634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.51, "volume": 27249, "typical_volume": 21346.6, "trend": 4.547333, "fair_value": 4.4625, "relative_strength": -19.829185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.60227, "energy": 37.640765, "activity_lines": [ 4.469333, 4.498727, 4.537714, 4.54514 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.55, "volume": 8544, "typical_volume": 20953.1, "trend": 4.544, "fair_value": 4.463079, "relative_strength": -20.841999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.74551, "energy": 16.584443, "activity_lines": [ 4.498, 4.503273, 4.537762, 4.545312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }