{ "ticker": { "uuid": "867a64ef-317c-444d-822d-75fdb57d1bd2", "symbol": "600382", "name": "Guangdong Mingzhu Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.413, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.529, "architecture_energy": 62.704, "architecture_maturity": 22.973, "architecture_confidence": 84.156, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.2, "rotation_up": 13.38, "upward_expansion": 12.66, "deceleration": 41.76, "rotation_down": 66.75, "downward_expansion": 85.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.175333, 6.508182, 7.333986, 7.72344 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.38, "trend_reference": 8.098152, "distance_from_trend": -0.212166, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.144964, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.240047, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.310419, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.31456, "excess_performance": -0.271356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212166, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00867, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.240047, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.416449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229476, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31456, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.194411, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87103606, "relative_activity": 0.895155, "balance": 1.194411, "dry_up": 0.835199, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171841, "annualized_volatility": 0.628589, "from_high_reference": -0.368307, "from_low_reference": 0.255992 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.098152, "fair_value_reference": 5.144964, "structural_low": 5.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.00486, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017647, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.300283, "worst_return": -0.144685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.025876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024349, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.541555, "worst_return": -0.15376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129569, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.040924, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.304526, "worst_return": -0.137168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.473332, "energy": 83.745251, "activity_lines": [ 6.404667, 7.229857, 7.8737, 8.099159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.74, "volume": 80976480, "typical_volume": 96308987.15, "trend": 8.126653, "fair_value": 5.115226, "relative_strength": -18.166952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.097575, "energy": 85.030593, "activity_lines": [ 6.05, 6.851582, 7.637039, 7.942708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.46, "volume": 95864976, "typical_volume": 96521297.55, "trend": 8.111989, "fair_value": 5.130323, "relative_strength": -8.543346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.503483, "energy": 77.346107, "activity_lines": [ 6.102, 6.660909, 7.484497, 7.835182 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.38, "volume": 87103606, "typical_volume": 97305559.1, "trend": 8.098152, "fair_value": 5.144964, "relative_strength": -12.310419, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.52927, "energy": 62.703505, "activity_lines": [ 6.175333, 6.508182, 7.333986, 7.72344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }