{ "ticker": { "uuid": "867b3dab-05b4-4392-a3f4-c1200b6991ff", "symbol": "006208", "name": "Fubon FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.25, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.668, "architecture_energy": 29.114, "architecture_maturity": 68.841, "architecture_confidence": 84.736, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.98, "rotation_up": 30.94, "upward_expansion": 59.94, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 27.65, "downward_expansion": 21.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 234.241159, 236.03119, 231.497557, 220.533889 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 235.350006, "trend_reference": 205.006071, "distance_from_trend": 0.148015, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 120.838819, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.947636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.94788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.400476, "excess_performance": 0.021164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.148015, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.947636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.150437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019479, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0371, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.400476, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.885273, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14321797, "relative_activity": 0.840089, "balance": 0.885273, "dry_up": 1.207878, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057234, "annualized_volatility": 0.297097, "from_high_reference": -0.058035, "from_low_reference": 1.047481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 205.006071, "fair_value_reference": 120.838819, "structural_low": 163.899994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.013627, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004579, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.197544, "worst_return": -0.02748, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051459, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.006129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286531, "worst_return": -0.075282, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.080695, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.024278, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090716, "worst_return": -0.159964, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 227.75, "volume": 26733585, "typical_volume": 18147828.65, "trend": 196.334404, "fair_value": 117.677703, "relative_strength": 2.703772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.584348, "energy": 50.121429, "activity_lines": [ 236.976737, 237.07294, 226.064443, 213.709794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 233.0, "volume": 14369208, "typical_volume": 17093610.95, "trend": 199.332737, "fair_value": 118.718341, "relative_strength": 2.567704, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.671316, "energy": 44.846819, "activity_lines": [ 235.06808, 236.655992, 227.994052, 216.075317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 235.350006, "volume": 26942813, "typical_volume": 17048066.9, "trend": 202.259404, "fair_value": 119.782206, "relative_strength": 4.698124, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.142505, "energy": 34.100038, "activity_lines": [ 234.696214, 236.437227, 229.886519, 218.399011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 235.350006, "volume": 14321797, "typical_volume": 17047950.45, "trend": 205.006071, "fair_value": 120.838819, "relative_strength": 1.94788, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.66778, "energy": 29.113587, "activity_lines": [ 234.241159, 236.03119, 231.497557, 220.533889 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }