{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8687da77-b2c2-45fd-a023-5b61b39c2eca", "symbol": "PPIL", "name": "Plastopil Hazorea Company Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.879, "architecture_energy": 63.773, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.19, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.9, "rotation_up": 29.41, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 59.2, "rotation_down": 51.06, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.990133, 5.010164, 5.10229, 5.309516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.09, "trend_reference": 5.632733, "distance_from_trend": -0.096353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.851917, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.1302, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.080831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.222426, "excess_performance": -0.251326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097449, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.1302, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020067, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.222426, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.281674, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4615, "relative_activity": 0.793167, "balance": 1.281674, "dry_up": 2.153967, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025465, "annualized_volatility": 0.294729, "from_high_reference": -0.385414, "from_low_reference": 0.060417 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.632733, "fair_value_reference": 5.851917, "structural_low": 4.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.007928, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.015748, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.140393, "worst_return": -0.106813, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.032114, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.031072, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.389772, "worst_return": -0.139563, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.03078, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.020088, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.336785, "worst_return": -0.173554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.114151, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065116, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.259899, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070538, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", 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5398.0, "trend": 5.7105, "fair_value": 5.859513, "relative_strength": -34.409275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.758224, "energy": 86.774025, "activity_lines": [ 4.9272, 5.013273, 5.155995, 5.392499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.999, "volume": 3794, "typical_volume": 5587.7, "trend": 5.664733, "fair_value": 5.855269, "relative_strength": -31.105115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.410231, "energy": 76.830394, "activity_lines": [ 4.942467, 5.002655, 5.12151, 5.346596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.09, "volume": 4615, "typical_volume": 5818.45, "trend": 5.632733, "fair_value": 5.851917, "relative_strength": -29.080831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.878841, "energy": 63.772644, "activity_lines": [ 4.990133, 5.010164, 5.10229, 5.309516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }