{ "ticker": { "uuid": "868eb598-9abe-4e5e-8bec-dc617ca0e756", "symbol": "002895", "name": "Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.853, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -8.546, "architecture_energy": 18.304, "architecture_maturity": 73.127, "architecture_confidence": 50.74, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.85, "rotation_up": 42.02, "upward_expansion": 22.13, "deceleration": 41.3, "rotation_down": 16.99, "downward_expansion": 53.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.593999, 32.313999, 32.515538, 33.598728 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.099998, "trend_reference": 35.044344, "distance_from_trend": 0.001588, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.917056, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.53161, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.481233, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.126044, "excess_performance": -0.133444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001588, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.53161, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023687, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.034812, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118877, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.126044, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.682924, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33217425, "relative_activity": 0.87488, "balance": 1.682924, "dry_up": 1.065832, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080914, "annualized_volatility": 0.447969, "from_high_reference": -0.202387, "from_low_reference": 0.515379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.044344, "fair_value_reference": 22.917056, "structural_low": 27.940001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.057606, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.016124, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.261387, "worst_return": -0.16485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.206093, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.16474, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.553609, "worst_return": -0.168857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.169453, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.049337, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.379331, "worst_return": -0.094667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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48.802519, "activity_lines": [ 30.159333, 30.698079, 32.321554, 33.732576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.459999, "volume": 45639565, "typical_volume": 41633133.5, "trend": 35.073731, "fair_value": 22.700967, "relative_strength": 3.113786, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.11235, "energy": 30.866807, "activity_lines": [ 31.280666, 31.089818, 32.268335, 33.627541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.57, "volume": 40506544, "typical_volume": 39865811.65, "trend": 35.042873, "fair_value": 22.813199, "relative_strength": 7.692621, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.503099, "energy": 15.351679, "activity_lines": [ 32.486, 31.669272, 32.352564, 33.595042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.099998, "volume": 33217425, "typical_volume": 37967964.55, "trend": 35.044344, "fair_value": 22.917056, "relative_strength": 3.481233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.545728, "energy": 18.304339, "activity_lines": [ 33.593999, 32.313999, 32.515538, 33.598728 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }