{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8694d5b0-b4fc-4fa6-8f66-2058375eba6e", "symbol": "API", "name": "Agora\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.04, "architecture_energy": 10.102, "architecture_maturity": 35.884, "architecture_confidence": 63.195, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.67, "rotation_up": 32.22, "upward_expansion": 27.89, "deceleration": 64.06, "rotation_down": 37.27, "downward_expansion": 27.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.126, 4.114182, 4.082762, 4.057484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.46, "trend_reference": 4.098667, "distance_from_trend": 0.088159, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.508013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.271375, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.748023, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037209, "excess_performance": -0.150244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088159, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030334, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.271375, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020827, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00748, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066444, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037209, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.103749, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1506453, "relative_activity": 0.795603, "balance": 1.103749, "dry_up": 0.688564, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115454, "annualized_volatility": 0.573107, "from_high_reference": -0.188353, "from_low_reference": 0.420382 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.098667, "fair_value_reference": 3.508013, "structural_low": 3.36, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.023148, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.05888, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.233898, "worst_return": -0.2625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065602, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.119505, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.023377, "worst_return": -0.167582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.090909, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.24563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.060606, "worst_return": -0.199488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.172819, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.243249, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.673004, "worst_return": -0.327366, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.039841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.307856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.565371, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.448187, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.525974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.291188, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.023377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02799, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"fair_value": 3.487564, "relative_strength": -10.304048, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.2528, "energy": 10.557622, "activity_lines": [ 4.048667, 4.123455, 4.03781, 4.057183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.85, "volume": 1012039, "typical_volume": 1960192.9, "trend": 4.101333, "fair_value": 3.491795, "relative_strength": -9.843418, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.306792, "energy": 20.44969, "activity_lines": [ 3.975333, 4.076, 4.027381, 4.040796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.0, "volume": 1410131, "typical_volume": 1898016.6, "trend": 4.1, "fair_value": 3.498013, "relative_strength": -6.602048, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.39522, "energy": 17.033169, "activity_lines": [ 3.972, 4.056545, 4.033571, 4.034258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.46, "volume": 1506453, "typical_volume": 1893473.05, "trend": 4.098667, "fair_value": 3.508013, "relative_strength": -0.748023, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.040132, "energy": 10.102152, "activity_lines": [ 4.126, 4.114182, 4.082762, 4.057484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }