{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8697a9ce-e8d7-48f4-a7f7-2607f295988a", "symbol": "MSE", "name": "Amundi EURO STOXX 50 II UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.294, "architecture_energy": 68.849, "architecture_maturity": 32.422, "architecture_confidence": 91.703, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 62.71, "upward_expansion": 85.65, "deceleration": 53.66, "rotation_down": 22.76, "downward_expansion": 12.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.588, 72.049636, 70.432, 69.11985 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 74.32, "trend_reference": 67.861334, "distance_from_trend": 0.095174, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.869617, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306849, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.057841, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109751, "excess_performance": 0.056439, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095174, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039203, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088627, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060578, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010242, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109751, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.997222, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 438191, "relative_activity": 0.555105, "balance": 2.997222, "dry_up": 0.496487, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024603, "annualized_volatility": 0.17645, "from_high_reference": -0.005087, "from_low_reference": 0.265668 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 67.861334, "fair_value_reference": 56.869617, "structural_low": 60.080002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.00283, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.00536, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.103266, "worst_return": -0.08835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.00561, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.008757, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.127376, "worst_return": -0.100328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071356, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.042476, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.117548, "worst_return": -0.16413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 56.511059, "relative_strength": 6.691916, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.978473, "energy": 60.356876, "activity_lines": [ 71.467999, 71.088727, 69.401857, 68.365785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 72.360001, "volume": 586594, "typical_volume": 819656.0, "trend": 67.613667, "fair_value": 56.683527, "relative_strength": 5.970645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.245504, "energy": 54.012245, "activity_lines": [ 71.756666, 71.428545, 69.843905, 68.687183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.32, "volume": 438191, "typical_volume": 789384.0, "trend": 67.861334, "fair_value": 56.869617, "relative_strength": 6.057841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.293685, "energy": 68.848525, "activity_lines": [ 72.588, 72.049636, 70.432, 69.11985 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }