{ "ticker": { "uuid": "869a8746-32dd-47e8-a8ae-95d48cd691b8", "symbol": "STRO", "name": "StrongPoint ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.387, "architecture_energy": 39.867, "architecture_maturity": 4.223, "architecture_confidence": 71.475, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.44, "rotation_up": 18.39, "upward_expansion": 24.34, "deceleration": 48.98, "rotation_down": 60.81, "downward_expansion": 49.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.186667, 10.320909, 10.408095, 10.394538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.1, "trend_reference": 10.388667, "distance_from_trend": -0.027787, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.445705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.117573, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.831221, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.042654, "excess_performance": -0.167648, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018297, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.117573, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054562, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027569, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042654, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.673769, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17283, "relative_activity": 0.11321, "balance": 1.673769, "dry_up": 0.559569, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034653, "annualized_volatility": 0.180088, "from_high_reference": -0.106195, "from_low_reference": 0.107456 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.388667, "fair_value_reference": 11.445705, "structural_low": 9.7, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.064039, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058871, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.050526, "worst_return": -0.077982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.12069, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.199777, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.004926, "worst_return": -0.188073, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134483, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.183689, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029557, "worst_return": -0.385321, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037559, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033493, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.950001, "volume": 135511, "typical_volume": 111596.75, "trend": 21.706397, "fair_value": 22.294258, "relative_strength": -15.966314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.250838, 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58.384482, "energy": 29.452661, "activity_lines": [ 10.606667, 10.584545, 10.501238, 10.44729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.25, "volume": 153468, "typical_volume": 180916.45, "trend": 10.390333, "fair_value": 11.669744, "relative_strength": -9.448311, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.954075, "energy": 10.761618, "activity_lines": [ 10.483333, 10.535455, 10.486667, 10.438817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.45, "volume": 112931, "typical_volume": 178617.15, "trend": 10.402, "fair_value": 11.612692, "relative_strength": -8.323109, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.109077, "energy": 14.099513, "activity_lines": [ 10.46, 10.522727, 10.489286, 10.442667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.25, "volume": 102839, "typical_volume": 179483.85, "trend": 10.402, "fair_value": 11.558526, "relative_strength": -11.821001, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.513909, "energy": 11.58223, "activity_lines": [ 10.383333, 10.468182, 10.472381, 10.43286 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.1, "volume": 108649, "typical_volume": 160309.7, "trend": 10.392, "fair_value": 11.501154, "relative_strength": -13.023115, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.830309, "energy": 25.611874, "activity_lines": [ 10.273333, 10.391818, 10.440476, 10.413376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.1, "volume": 17283, "typical_volume": 152662.95, "trend": 10.388667, "fair_value": 11.445705, "relative_strength": -12.831221, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.38678, "energy": 39.866644, "activity_lines": [ 10.186667, 10.320909, 10.408095, 10.394538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }