{ "ticker": { "uuid": "869fa8f7-6750-4e22-a7af-0223fb14a3cb", "symbol": "SYNE3", "name": "Syn Prop & Tech S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.036, "architecture_energy": 19.649, "architecture_maturity": 29.818, "architecture_confidence": 57.143, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.06, "rotation_up": 19.58, "upward_expansion": 16.7, "deceleration": 60.29, "rotation_down": 43.56, "downward_expansion": 59.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.046, 4.089818, 4.011762, 4.088946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.0, "trend_reference": 4.259667, "distance_from_trend": -0.060959, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.654548, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.094527, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.108547, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.176955, "excess_performance": -0.119906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060959, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054114, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.094527, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.131085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118264, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176955, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.262586, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1069600, "relative_activity": 0.638142, "balance": 1.262586, "dry_up": 0.610415, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069231, "annualized_volatility": 0.345437, "from_high_reference": -0.232914, "from_low_reference": 0.15942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.259667, "fair_value_reference": 3.654548, "structural_low": 3.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054546, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.028997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141243, "worst_return": -0.137787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.07789, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069691, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.048309, "worst_return": -0.206681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.386043, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.279438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.113527, "worst_return": -0.258586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.119048, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020715, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097649, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124784, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0501, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 1838375.0, "trend": 4.347, "fair_value": 3.612313, "relative_strength": -11.308715, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.222015, "energy": 25.939438, "activity_lines": [ 4.26, 4.092364, 4.031, 4.152151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.87, "volume": 865400, "typical_volume": 1789510.0, "trend": 4.308667, "fair_value": 3.625872, "relative_strength": -17.725513, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.30226, "energy": 19.473842, "activity_lines": [ 4.131333, 4.074545, 4.010238, 4.121376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.09, "volume": 914000, "typical_volume": 1739305.0, "trend": 4.284, "fair_value": 3.640457, "relative_strength": -14.432703, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.347488, "energy": 8.84316, "activity_lines": [ 4.096667, 4.093091, 4.014143, 4.107269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.0, "volume": 1069600, "typical_volume": 1676115.0, "trend": 4.259667, "fair_value": 3.654548, "relative_strength": -13.108547, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.036347, "energy": 19.649092, "activity_lines": [ 4.046, 4.089818, 4.011762, 4.088946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }