{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "86a31fb0-b9c6-4524-b036-38f4458324ed",
    "symbol": "AXSM",
    "name": "Axsome Therapeutics Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 87.399,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 22.453,
    "architecture_energy": 21.144,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.788,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.414,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.31,
        "rotation_up": 20.21,
        "upward_expansion": 55.53,
        "deceleration": 91.01,
        "rotation_down": 35.54,
        "downward_expansion": 21.53
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        223.497333,
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        217.048022
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 212.74,
    "trend_reference": 203.1225,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.047348,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 117.510737,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.810388,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 8.106169,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.165379,
    "excess_performance": -0.022074,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.047348,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.157808,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.810388,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.275721,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.081062,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.201422,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.165379,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.491587,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3523521,
      "relative_activity": 0.888066,
      "balance": 0.491587,
      "dry_up": 0.868502,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.086006,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.372278,
      "from_high_reference": -0.182367,
      "from_low_reference": 1.072076
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 203.1225,
      "fair_value_reference": 117.510737,
      "structural_low": 152.28,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 20,
        "median_return": 0.026583,
        "positive_rate": 0.55,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.55,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015091,
        "regime_survival": 0.65,
        "best_return": 0.346996,
        "worst_return": -0.136152,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
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        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.072523,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
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        "worst_return": -0.210981,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.173297,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.043491,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
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        "worst_return": 0.053207,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
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        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.262245,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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        "typical_volume": 3919330.95,
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        "direction": 60.606935,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 230.0,
        "volume": 3682609,
        "typical_volume": 3882347.15,
        "trend": 197.402167,
        "fair_value": 114.627468,
        "relative_strength": 25.203143,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.024818,
        "energy": 37.57878,
        "activity_lines": [
          236.798,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 241.0,
        "volume": 3380677,
        "typical_volume": 3926569.35,
        "trend": 200.367167,
        "fair_value": 115.667981,
        "relative_strength": 31.656328,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.621603,
        "energy": 33.761449,
        "activity_lines": [
          237.112667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 217.99,
        "volume": 3196791,
        "typical_volume": 3929505.95,
        "trend": 201.677167,
        "fair_value": 116.593173,
        "relative_strength": 17.33742,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.419201,
        "energy": 22.616603,
        "activity_lines": [
          230.390667,
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          229.147405,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 212.74,
        "volume": 3523521,
        "typical_volume": 3967633.65,
        "trend": 203.1225,
        "fair_value": 117.510737,
        "relative_strength": 8.106169,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 22.452586,
        "energy": 21.143984,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}