{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "86ae903b-0d7b-4988-8973-15afcf32425b",
    "symbol": "NDXH",
    "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Nasdaq-100 Swap ETF EUR Hedged Acc",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 79.975,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 44.11,
    "architecture_energy": 29.162,
    "architecture_maturity": 67.986,
    "architecture_confidence": 82.637,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 34.53,
        "rotation_up": 28.06,
        "upward_expansion": 58.2,
        "deceleration": 88.31,
        "rotation_down": 35.45,
        "downward_expansion": 21.87
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        651.246671,
        657.255999,
        655.8869,
        638.058576
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 670.299988,
    "trend_reference": 616.464663,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.087329,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 495.265384,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353416,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.300331,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.177349,
    "excess_performance": 0.006457,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.087329,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048444,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.353416,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04937,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033003,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.070517,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.177349,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.143113,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3937,
      "relative_activity": 0.543646,
      "balance": 2.143113,
      "dry_up": 0.760441,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034429,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.200872,
      "from_high_reference": -0.027367,
      "from_low_reference": 0.2772
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 616.464663,
      "fair_value_reference": 495.265384,
      "structural_low": 524.820007,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.01332,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011569,
        "regime_survival": 0.461538,
        "best_return": 0.105454,
        "worst_return": -0.092661,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.058002,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": 0.018296,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.139088,
        "worst_return": -0.146354,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.149404,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.027559,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.202823,
        "worst_return": -0.029272,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.175637,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.067283,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.310356,
        "worst_return": -0.264934,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009979,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.09399,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.162157,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017402,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-18",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.036407,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002874,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031443,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.023131,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.033788,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-10",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.020374,
        "active": false
      },
      {
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        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047507,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 7681.7,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 639.900024,
        "volume": 2779,
        "typical_volume": 7473.3,
        "trend": 611.822994,
        "fair_value": 491.545704,
        "relative_strength": -4.499066,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 40.156256,
        "energy": 26.665219,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 633.400024,
        "volume": 11872,
        "typical_volume": 7387.65,
        "trend": 613.701662,
        "fair_value": 493.250256,
        "relative_strength": -5.997243,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.046088,
        "energy": 25.563483,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 670.299988,
        "volume": 3937,
        "typical_volume": 7241.85,
        "trend": 616.464663,
        "fair_value": 495.265384,
        "relative_strength": -3.300331,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.109691,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}