{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86b97694-e56f-406c-9700-7a98431a0f71", "symbol": "5BI", "name": "Polaris Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.541, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.222, "architecture_energy": 18.27, "architecture_maturity": 8.495, "architecture_confidence": 61.212, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.5, "rotation_up": 23.17, "upward_expansion": 1.68, "deceleration": 52.71, "rotation_down": 29.76, "downward_expansion": 50.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001005, 0.001024 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.001, "trend_reference": 0.001033, "distance_from_trend": -0.032258, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.001077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.071429, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.370077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.154835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032258, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016291, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06732, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": null, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100, "relative_activity": 0.000295, "balance": null, "dry_up": 7.4e-05, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076923, "annualized_volatility": 1.386294, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.001033, "fair_value_reference": 0.001077, "structural_low": 0.001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.000261, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.024477, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.011648, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.332189, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.666667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.001, 0.001043, 0.001041 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 0.001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 491020.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001077, "relative_strength": -17.722292, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.732554, "energy": 7.031767, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001038, 0.001039 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 0.001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 339460.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001077, "relative_strength": -17.302525, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.83286, "energy": 8.612107, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001033, 0.001037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 339465.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001077, "relative_strength": -17.734212, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.909114, "energy": 21.387618, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001029, 0.001034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 339465.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001077, "relative_strength": -20.712053, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.155886, "energy": 29.854971, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001024, 0.001032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 339465.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001077, "relative_strength": -20.912563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.47004, "energy": 29.014403, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001019, 0.00103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 339460.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001077, "relative_strength": -21.663432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.750388, "energy": 24.763211, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001014, 0.001028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 339460.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001077, "relative_strength": -21.807168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.999896, "energy": 18.796245, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.00101, 0.001026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.001, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 339465.0, "trend": 0.001033, "fair_value": 0.001077, "relative_strength": -22.370077, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.222249, "energy": 18.269914, "activity_lines": [ 0.001, 0.001, 0.001005, 0.001024 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }