{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86b97d07-e56d-49b2-9702-c5478be0999a", "symbol": "MGF", "name": "MFS Government Markets Income Trust", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.66, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.35, "architecture_energy": 25.803, "architecture_maturity": 43.841, "architecture_confidence": 92.823, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.99, "rotation_up": 20.0, "upward_expansion": 2.07, "deceleration": 50.51, "rotation_down": 43.99, "downward_expansion": 73.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.818653, 2.821851, 2.830985, 2.845414 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.83, "trend_reference": 2.868165, "distance_from_trend": -0.013307, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.767863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.908552, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030764, "excess_performance": -0.156389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01196, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.129086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006159, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030764, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.582947, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 155326, "relative_activity": 0.364884, "balance": 0.582947, "dry_up": 0.642792, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024929, "annualized_volatility": 0.056481, "from_high_reference": -0.054475, "from_low_reference": 0.017908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.868165, "fair_value_reference": 2.767863, "structural_low": 2.780212, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.006956, "positive_rate": 0.368421, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.004616, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.047291, "worst_return": -0.040485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.002653, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.049461, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.103644, "worst_return": -0.098185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004717, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015542, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.029193, "worst_return": -0.092811, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006542, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01558, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025807, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", 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"down", "direction": -37.730352, "energy": 20.239237, "activity_lines": [ 2.833279, 2.830916, 2.844808, 2.861073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.81, "volume": 320239, "typical_volume": 468449.85, "trend": 2.877601, "fair_value": 2.762842, "relative_strength": -11.069529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.198285, "energy": 23.301878, "activity_lines": [ 2.827211, 2.826722, 2.840215, 2.856587 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.81, "volume": 304720, "typical_volume": 445295.25, "trend": 2.874394, "fair_value": 2.764319, "relative_strength": -10.261713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.792151, "energy": 24.907433, "activity_lines": [ 2.821253, 2.823481, 2.836117, 2.852226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.81, "volume": 314226, "typical_volume": 427170.0, "trend": 2.871187, "fair_value": 2.766052, "relative_strength": -10.866417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.695987, "energy": 27.686001, "activity_lines": [ 2.81662, 2.820652, 2.832421, 2.848071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.83, "volume": 155326, "typical_volume": 425686.05, "trend": 2.868165, "fair_value": 2.767863, "relative_strength": -12.908552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.349979, "energy": 25.802683, "activity_lines": [ 2.818653, 2.821851, 2.830985, 2.845414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }