{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86beb095-9b00-42b7-ada1-5d593c8155ad", "symbol": "541", "name": "Abundance International Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 61.157, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.296, "architecture_energy": 6.364, "architecture_maturity": 21.123, "architecture_confidence": 56.312, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.91, "rotation_up": 31.12, "upward_expansion": 50.3, "deceleration": 54.08, "rotation_down": 26.1, "downward_expansion": 26.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.025267, 0.025273, 0.025286, 0.025068 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.025, "trend_reference": 0.024942, "distance_from_trend": 0.002324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021137, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.18274, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.270716, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05962, "excess_performance": -0.214455, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002324, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025739, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.18274, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149364, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05962, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 59.35, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.00674, "balance": 59.35, "dry_up": 0.171368, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101538, "annualized_volatility": 0.710489, "from_high_reference": -0.253219, "from_low_reference": 0.315789 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.024942, "fair_value_reference": 0.021137, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.000867, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 1.080019, "worst_return": -0.119967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.023438, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034929, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.439997, "worst_return": -0.111522, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.027789, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.040916, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.200025, "worst_return": -0.174994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.111099, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.065637, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177875, "worst_return": -0.08508, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117696, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111099, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04997, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095227, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.333317, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.249991, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.192308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190476, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.026585, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 2477325.0, "trend": 0.025989, "fair_value": 0.028398, "relative_strength": 3.647465, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.068766, "energy": 9.416111, 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advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.504047, "energy": 4.367741, "activity_lines": [ 0.0254, 0.025091, 0.025198, 0.025016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.025, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": 280515.0, "trend": 0.025067, "fair_value": 0.021142, "relative_strength": -16.044595, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.096744, "energy": 2.276023, "activity_lines": [ 0.025133, 0.025055, 0.025214, 0.025006 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.025, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 240015.0, "trend": 0.024982, "fair_value": 0.021132, "relative_strength": -16.913107, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.044955, "energy": 6.379244, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.025036, 0.025219, 0.025001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.026, "volume": 100500, "typical_volume": 220020.0, "trend": 0.024995, "fair_value": 0.021141, "relative_strength": -14.096197, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.569118, "energy": 11.635294, "activity_lines": [ 0.025333, 0.025218, 0.025308, 0.025067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.025, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 148365.0, "trend": 0.024942, "fair_value": 0.021137, "relative_strength": -18.270716, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.29584, "energy": 6.364314, "activity_lines": [ 0.025267, 0.025273, 0.025286, 0.025068 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }