{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86cb82c6-cd24-41ac-bb0b-53f13f3a5e6f", "symbol": "002367", "name": "Canny Elevator Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.53, "architecture_energy": 68.723, "architecture_maturity": 42.307, "architecture_confidence": 84.229, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.12, "rotation_up": 12.41, "upward_expansion": 17.07, "deceleration": 35.8, "rotation_down": 71.79, "downward_expansion": 88.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.362, 5.660182, 5.789007, 6.095891 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.4, "trend_reference": 6.576036, "distance_from_trend": -0.178837, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.565262, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177489, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.027999, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.313957, "excess_performance": -0.321357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.178837, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069257, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177489, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079261, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.23028, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.072653, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.313957, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.620286, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43199623, "relative_activity": 0.805408, "balance": 0.620286, "dry_up": 1.200563, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105317, "annualized_volatility": 0.47087, "from_high_reference": -0.354736, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.576036, "fair_value_reference": 6.565262, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.017833, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.007081, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.240708, "worst_return": -0.241084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.062801, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.007133, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.445076, "worst_return": -0.12, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.072896, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.113779, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271667, "worst_return": -0.152893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 5.06, "volume": 84629602, "typical_volume": 53683362.25, "trend": 6.723619, "fair_value": 6.598244, "relative_strength": -26.585654, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.448127, "energy": 43.065303, "activity_lines": [ 5.734, 5.819818, 5.930596, 6.267614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.32, "volume": 50146731, "typical_volume": 53646568.65, "trend": 6.658085, "fair_value": 6.581411, "relative_strength": -20.927254, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.520016, "energy": 56.612933, "activity_lines": [ 5.489333, 5.727091, 5.849708, 6.177058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.4, "volume": 43199623, "typical_volume": 53636939.1, "trend": 6.576036, "fair_value": 6.565262, "relative_strength": -23.027999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.529993, "energy": 68.723354, "activity_lines": [ 5.362, 5.660182, 5.789007, 6.095891 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }