{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86cccd87-b339-422d-ae84-9a8997bd41e3", "symbol": "BAI", "name": "ISHARES A.I. INNOVATION AND TECH ACTIVE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.619, "architecture_energy": 18.064, "architecture_maturity": 65.337, "architecture_confidence": 81.667, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.35, "rotation_up": 15.97, "upward_expansion": 41.02, "deceleration": 87.72, "rotation_down": 42.85, "downward_expansion": 35.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.294667, 45.069636, 45.678857, 43.707742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.57, "trend_reference": 40.956667, "distance_from_trend": 0.088223, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.479581, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.879586, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.29564, "excess_performance": 0.170015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088223, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.372247, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058796, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2122, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.29564, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.321914, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18284093, "relative_activity": 0.951505, "balance": 1.321914, "dry_up": 0.991087, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115643, "annualized_volatility": 0.401612, "from_high_reference": -0.181601, "from_low_reference": 0.539297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.956667, "fair_value_reference": 32.479581, "structural_low": 30.87, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024066, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041842, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 24.638925, "volume": 436886, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 24.216656, "volume": 303453, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": 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32.136161, "relative_strength": 6.181804, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.236557, "energy": 19.990521, "activity_lines": [ 46.412, 47.511273, 45.799286, 43.214839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.78, "volume": 15720405, "typical_volume": 18594621.9, "trend": 40.364667, "fair_value": 32.251855, "relative_strength": 6.915983, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.023599, "energy": 21.257554, "activity_lines": [ 44.698, 46.588364, 45.792952, 43.389677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.34, "volume": 24472640, "typical_volume": 18935492.85, "trend": 40.615333, "fair_value": 32.349577, "relative_strength": 1.952433, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.897727, "energy": 15.575393, "activity_lines": [ 43.198667, 45.476545, 45.601476, 43.452602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.57, "volume": 18284093, "typical_volume": 19215976.5, "trend": 40.956667, "fair_value": 32.479581, "relative_strength": 5.879586, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.619202, "energy": 18.064249, "activity_lines": [ 43.294667, 45.069636, 45.678857, 43.707742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }