{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86cdc83c-4fac-4fee-b93d-710f270b1940", "symbol": "600255", "name": "Anhui Xinke New Materials Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.852, "architecture_energy": 53.908, "architecture_maturity": 12.849, "architecture_confidence": 81.791, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.94, "rotation_up": 11.34, "upward_expansion": 10.17, "deceleration": 40.83, "rotation_down": 65.06, "downward_expansion": 83.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.175333, 3.318182, 3.499333, 3.547011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.42, "trend_reference": 3.640667, "distance_from_trend": -0.060612, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.917821, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.172108, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.564507, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.134177, "excess_performance": -0.090973, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060612, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027167, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.172108, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095645, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134177, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.296548, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 396986954, "relative_activity": 1.178887, "balance": 1.296548, "dry_up": 1.238139, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132254, "annualized_volatility": 0.564462, "from_high_reference": -0.321429, "from_low_reference": 0.225806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.640667, "fair_value_reference": 2.917821, "structural_low": 2.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.037776, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": 0.025185, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.189873, "worst_return": -0.096386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.115531, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.109956, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.395349, "worst_return": -0.152263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.166111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.128882, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.133333, "worst_return": -0.219697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.954483, "energy": 39.566465, "activity_lines": [ 3.478, 3.683636, 3.671667, 3.692409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.05, "volume": 556006263, "typical_volume": 319647268.05, "trend": 3.719333, "fair_value": 2.896667, "relative_strength": -16.306295, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.74471, "energy": 52.533226, "activity_lines": [ 3.265333, 3.558909, 3.614238, 3.646925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.96, "volume": 402428377, "typical_volume": 325230313.15, "trend": 3.684333, "fair_value": 2.902436, "relative_strength": -19.558134, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.834172, "energy": 72.809191, "activity_lines": [ 3.096, 3.431091, 3.552714, 3.597935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.13, "volume": 312337808, "typical_volume": 329164507.95, "trend": 3.655, "fair_value": 2.909295, "relative_strength": -15.115516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.135576, "energy": 71.989582, "activity_lines": [ 3.068667, 3.343818, 3.511095, 3.562172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.42, "volume": 396986954, "typical_volume": 336747197.8, "trend": 3.640667, "fair_value": 2.917821, "relative_strength": -9.564507, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.851775, "energy": 53.907736, "activity_lines": [ 3.175333, 3.318182, 3.499333, 3.547011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }