{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86d365c8-32e5-4591-b287-d6aa93f42e25", "symbol": "GRWG", "name": "GrowGeneration Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 87.586, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 21.564, "architecture_energy": 13.606, "architecture_maturity": 44.982, "architecture_confidence": 70.531, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.1, "rotation_up": 24.84, "upward_expansion": 47.29, "deceleration": 81.87, "rotation_down": 27.91, "downward_expansion": 25.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.454, 1.462182, 1.481286, 1.416946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.51, "trend_reference": 1.353333, "distance_from_trend": 0.115764, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.811306, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.166348, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.67638, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.237705, "excess_performance": 0.050251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115764, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.166348, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.106764, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.237705, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.445712, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1355537, "relative_activity": 0.676225, "balance": 1.445712, "dry_up": 0.584214, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118869, "annualized_volatility": 0.562465, "from_high_reference": -0.370833, "from_low_reference": 0.502488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.353333, "fair_value_reference": 1.811306, "structural_low": 1.005, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.137405, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.113959, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.047619, "worst_return": -0.169492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.310734, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.311869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.310734, "worst_return": -0.310734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.19774, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.365852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.19774, "worst_return": -0.19774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2024-08-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.497797, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09009, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009615, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.172414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.259887, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.098361, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.424779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.22905, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027211, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.77, "volume": 3396301, "typical_volume": 4421285.95, "trend": 3.699333, "fair_value": 17.900673, "relative_strength": -42.299974, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.842756, 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.794008, "energy": 20.381242, "activity_lines": [ 1.482, 1.541091, 1.458429, 1.397484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.43, "volume": 1070747, "typical_volume": 2133868.2, "trend": 1.366333, "fair_value": 1.849127, "relative_strength": -11.572085, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.430833, "energy": 20.764503, "activity_lines": [ 1.460667, 1.516, 1.465333, 1.400839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.38, "volume": 799854, "typical_volume": 2094219.7, "trend": 1.358667, "fair_value": 1.834447, "relative_strength": -13.327982, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.034476, "energy": 16.654377, "activity_lines": [ 1.429333, 1.481636, 1.466048, 1.40172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.44, "volume": 1458242, "typical_volume": 2128039.05, "trend": 1.355333, "fair_value": 1.820729, "relative_strength": -10.291216, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.157561, "energy": 12.340478, "activity_lines": [ 1.432, 1.462364, 1.471238, 1.406968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.51, "volume": 1355537, "typical_volume": 2004565.05, "trend": 1.353333, "fair_value": 1.811306, "relative_strength": -10.67638, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.564073, "energy": 13.605591, "activity_lines": [ 1.454, 1.462182, 1.481286, 1.416946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }