{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86d43bfa-6b1d-4d30-8d78-c6ee91a81024", "symbol": "IEMG", "name": "iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.542, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.201, "architecture_energy": 17.467, "architecture_maturity": 62.342, "architecture_confidence": 79.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.42, "rotation_up": 16.29, "upward_expansion": 45.21, "deceleration": 87.78, "rotation_down": 42.41, "downward_expansion": 30.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 1362.31534, 1380.69804, 1384.019285, 1362.227714 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1376.900024, "trend_reference": 1333.194857, "distance_from_trend": 0.032782, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1072.327077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28403, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.807272, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.085028, "excess_performance": 0.139694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032782, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28403, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.058073, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085028, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.749543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18594, "relative_activity": 0.314638, "balance": 1.749543, "dry_up": 0.206658, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039062, "annualized_volatility": 0.215228, "from_high_reference": -0.073961, "from_low_reference": 0.228201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1333.194857, "fair_value_reference": 1072.327077, "structural_low": 1219.550049, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005893, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.016736, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.054328, "worst_return": -0.033305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027358, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.034732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151946, "worst_return": -0.040074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059923, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307203, "worst_return": -0.079888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012291, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088495, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 58307.35, "trend": 1329.264856, "fair_value": 1068.846319, "relative_strength": 3.409403, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.035707, "energy": 18.319706, "activity_lines": [ 1359.990665, 1384.726416, 1382.233405, 1359.154478 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1376.900024, "volume": 18594, "typical_volume": 59096.45, "trend": 1333.194857, "fair_value": 1072.327077, "relative_strength": 5.807272, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.200517, "energy": 17.467335, "activity_lines": [ 1362.31534, 1380.69804, 1384.019285, 1362.227714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }