{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86d4d12d-96f8-44dc-a389-f85161445e3a", "symbol": "TDSA", "name": "Teixeira Duarte, S.A.", "exchange": "LIS", "country": "PT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-10-09", "benchmark": "PSI20.LS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -15.336, "architecture_energy": 30.619, "architecture_maturity": 41.514, "architecture_confidence": 74.79, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.19, "rotation_up": 20.75, "upward_expansion": 51.8, "deceleration": 63.17, "rotation_down": 38.31, "downward_expansion": 36.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.469067, 0.475109, 0.482181, 0.475896 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.444, "trend_reference": 0.4641, "distance_from_trend": -0.04331, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.286824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.547986, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.368952, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.013333, "excess_performance": 0.006829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04331, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.547986, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.38601, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19369, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059693, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.013333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.966521, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16039346, "relative_activity": 1.438199, "balance": 0.966521, "dry_up": 2.302346, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043053, "annualized_volatility": 0.356794, "from_high_reference": -0.454545, "from_low_reference": 0.168421 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.4641, "fair_value_reference": 0.286824, "structural_low": 0.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.014048, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.1875, "median_excess_return": -0.024425, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.10396, "worst_return": -0.216981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.051485, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.098766, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.06405, "worst_return": -0.306854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.092424, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.138743, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.009804, "worst_return": -0.275701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.331719, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.293038, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.468182, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.324201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013825, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0837, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121951, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03913, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 4.938865, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", 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"volume": 24902561, "typical_volume": 10921479.45, "trend": 0.464133, "fair_value": 0.284458, "relative_strength": -14.904541, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.993205, "energy": 13.136062, "activity_lines": [ 0.4818, 0.482264, 0.485726, 0.477195 ] }, { "date": "2026-10-09", "close": 0.444, "volume": 16039346, "typical_volume": 11152386.1, "trend": 0.4641, "fair_value": 0.286824, "relative_strength": -19.368952, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.335867, "energy": 30.619011, "activity_lines": [ 0.469067, 0.475109, 0.482181, 0.475896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }