{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86de6b3d-abed-4211-bbbd-7212a3c8db0e", "symbol": "603365", "name": "Shanghai Shuixing Home Textile Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.541, "architecture_energy": 22.954, "architecture_maturity": 73.477, "architecture_confidence": 68.584, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.06, "rotation_up": 30.07, "upward_expansion": 19.64, "deceleration": 46.07, "rotation_down": 23.39, "downward_expansion": 55.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.806667, 17.452453, 17.906329, 18.547148 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.68, "trend_reference": 19.326483, "distance_from_trend": -0.085193, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.995763, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105293, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.128693, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.177292, "excess_performance": -0.134088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.085193, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05807, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105293, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135645, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005655, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177292, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.232923, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10134772, "relative_activity": 1.031778, "balance": 1.232923, "dry_up": 1.188201, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072736, "annualized_volatility": 0.318559, "from_high_reference": -0.262715, "from_low_reference": 0.133333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.326483, "fair_value_reference": 15.995763, "structural_low": 15.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.011155, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.003226, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.159537, "worst_return": -0.118617, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.046124, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000903, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.161822, "worst_return": -0.110485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.141614, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.034543, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.218382, "worst_return": -0.122729, "sufficient": false }, 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"fair_value": 15.868834, "relative_strength": -14.06612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.606052, "energy": 61.912896, "activity_lines": [ 16.730583, 17.138413, 18.33751, 18.988901 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.42, "volume": 8208753, "typical_volume": 9183883.5, "trend": 19.582347, "fair_value": 15.900026, "relative_strength": -4.556227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.098167, "energy": 46.341156, "activity_lines": [ 16.918, 17.100305, 18.170965, 18.843881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.74, "volume": 16462157, "typical_volume": 9438914.05, "trend": 19.495334, "fair_value": 15.933726, "relative_strength": -3.954423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.515661, "energy": 32.905414, "activity_lines": [ 17.234, 17.155157, 18.0468, 18.72502 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.49, "volume": 11879341, "typical_volume": 9653406.6, "trend": 19.43167, "fair_value": 15.970002, "relative_strength": -0.307789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.120955, "energy": 23.342981, "activity_lines": [ 17.734, 17.381231, 18.009493, 18.660159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.68, "volume": 10134772, "typical_volume": 9822629.3, "trend": 19.326483, "fair_value": 15.995763, "relative_strength": -7.128693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.540749, "energy": 22.953502, "activity_lines": [ 17.806667, 17.452453, 17.906329, 18.547148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }