{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86e117ad-9f24-4af4-ad09-e080d0a98065", "symbol": "NILAINFRA", "name": "Nila Infrastructures Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.149, "architecture_energy": 54.685, "architecture_maturity": 12.284, "architecture_confidence": 91.809, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.21, "rotation_up": 13.67, "upward_expansion": 11.03, "deceleration": 39.96, "rotation_down": 62.0, "downward_expansion": 84.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.375333, 7.481273, 7.735524, 7.770172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.47, "trend_reference": 7.892667, "distance_from_trend": -0.053552, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.161923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.264903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.497414, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086797, "excess_performance": -0.043088, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053552, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079107, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.264903, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171121, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086797, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731691, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1213136, "relative_activity": 1.075519, "balance": 0.731691, "dry_up": 0.784518, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062712, "annualized_volatility": 0.478904, "from_high_reference": -0.353247, "from_low_reference": 0.266102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.892667, "fair_value_reference": 10.161923, "structural_low": 5.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.010616, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.021206, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.228814, "worst_return": -0.146789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.003696, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003169, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.173913, "worst_return": -0.188119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06473, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.033082, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.4, "worst_return": -0.176238, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.136136, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.109745, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078352, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02808, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", 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-18.229424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.398312, "energy": 62.886938, "activity_lines": [ 7.477333, 7.665455, 7.84981, 7.894215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.32, "volume": 854636, "typical_volume": 1161818.95, "trend": 8.029, "fair_value": 10.132436, "relative_strength": -14.789902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.909489, "energy": 62.96498, "activity_lines": [ 7.384, 7.575818, 7.804667, 7.843247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.38, "volume": 989221, "typical_volume": 1152623.85, "trend": 7.953667, "fair_value": 10.147051, "relative_strength": -15.603316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.098228, "energy": 61.357505, "activity_lines": [ 7.354667, 7.514, 7.766429, 7.801376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.47, "volume": 1213136, "typical_volume": 1127953.55, "trend": 7.892667, "fair_value": 10.161923, "relative_strength": -14.497414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.148948, "energy": 54.685257, "activity_lines": [ 7.375333, 7.481273, 7.735524, 7.770172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }