{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86e4a155-a0bc-447b-b9a2-c98d900e085d", "symbol": "2252", "name": "Cubtek Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.463, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.101, "architecture_energy": 37.666, "architecture_maturity": 28.599, "architecture_confidence": 57.563, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.32, "rotation_up": 22.23, "upward_expansion": 17.48, "deceleration": 43.13, "rotation_down": 58.95, "downward_expansion": 56.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.48, 17.095455, 17.552619, 17.622688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.450001, "trend_reference": 17.453333, "distance_from_trend": -0.057487, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.513461, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.402111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.328532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.057878, "excess_performance": -0.383494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057487, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.402111, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000743, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.393285, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061424, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.057878, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.072647, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 376692, "relative_activity": 0.22075, "balance": 3.072647, "dry_up": 0.131933, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139116, "annualized_volatility": 0.592362, "from_high_reference": -0.532006, "from_low_reference": 0.223048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.453333, "fair_value_reference": 27.513461, "structural_low": 13.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.022663, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.044516, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.137466, "worst_return": -0.368738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.155622, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.302976, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.061995, "worst_return": -0.373239, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.330986, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.34033, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.330986, "worst_return": -0.330986, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.211845, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009862, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096838, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153285, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": 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18.336667, 17.938182, 18.208571, 17.891505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 1161720, "typical_volume": 1881768.35, "trend": 17.588333, "fair_value": 28.664102, "relative_strength": -33.234919, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.674786, "energy": 17.731726, "activity_lines": [ 18.310001, 17.867273, 18.186429, 17.898387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.25, "volume": 156576, "typical_volume": 1872277.6, "trend": 17.573333, "fair_value": 28.366987, "relative_strength": -35.794034, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.017085, "energy": 15.179325, "activity_lines": [ 18.073334, 17.754546, 18.114286, 17.876559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.049999, "volume": 228777, "typical_volume": 1855063.25, "trend": 17.53, "fair_value": 28.080128, "relative_strength": -38.67416, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.294678, "energy": 16.510174, "activity_lines": [ 17.336667, 17.454545, 17.915238, 17.77828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.15, "volume": 138485, "typical_volume": 1777906.05, "trend": 17.481667, "fair_value": 27.786218, "relative_strength": -39.015693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.649724, "energy": 32.438715, "activity_lines": [ 16.74, 17.230909, 17.715714, 17.689247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.450001, "volume": 376692, "typical_volume": 1706419.75, "trend": 17.453333, "fair_value": 27.513461, "relative_strength": -39.328532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.101229, "energy": 37.666381, "activity_lines": [ 16.48, 17.095455, 17.552619, 17.622688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }