{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86e7416f-3192-4d92-84fd-54b7cfa004f1", "symbol": "ANX", "name": "Anax Metals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.076, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.788, "architecture_energy": 9.921, "architecture_maturity": 13.55, "architecture_confidence": 75.972, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.14, "rotation_up": 19.58, "upward_expansion": 40.83, "deceleration": 77.21, "rotation_down": 35.89, "downward_expansion": 37.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.028933, 0.029309, 0.030952, 0.030417 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.028, "trend_reference": 0.028833, "distance_from_trend": -0.028902, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.020846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.343173, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.935629, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.217391, "excess_performance": 0.153686, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.263696, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.343173, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078309, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.269356, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.74036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.217391, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.979179, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3889391, "relative_activity": 0.582875, "balance": 0.979179, "dry_up": 1.045571, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168956, "annualized_volatility": 0.798149, "from_high_reference": -0.3, "from_low_reference": 3.666667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.028833, "fair_value_reference": 0.020846, "structural_low": 0.018, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.013699, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.030243, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.84, "worst_return": -0.328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.096923, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.038234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287671, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.208791, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.202652, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.875, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 0.031, "volume": 6002835, "typical_volume": 7338539.6, "trend": 0.028167, "fair_value": 0.021186, "relative_strength": 54.197662, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.708151, "energy": 13.163018, "activity_lines": [ 0.029333, 0.030364, 0.031467, 0.030396 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.029, "volume": 9088970, "typical_volume": 7240207.85, "trend": 0.0285, "fair_value": 0.021019, "relative_strength": 38.154992, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.793565, "energy": 9.234955, "activity_lines": [ 0.029333, 0.029891, 0.031271, 0.030449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.028, "volume": 3889391, "typical_volume": 6672770.7, "trend": 0.028833, "fair_value": 0.020846, "relative_strength": 26.935629, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.787937, "energy": 9.92103, "activity_lines": [ 0.028933, 0.029309, 0.030952, 0.030417 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }