{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86e94f24-d067-4aa5-b947-c07ff81aff6c", "symbol": "WIZZ", "name": "Wizz Air Holdings Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.287, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -1.064, "architecture_energy": 14.443, "architecture_maturity": 28.884, "architecture_confidence": 54.08, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.41, "rotation_up": 17.43, "upward_expansion": 21.65, "deceleration": 69.76, "rotation_down": 48.33, "downward_expansion": 32.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 1082.133333, 1114.272727, 1080.571429, 1067.677419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1095.0, "trend_reference": 1094.916667, "distance_from_trend": 7.6e-05, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1524.185897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.281584, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.992555, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.220085, "excess_performance": -0.271321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 7.6e-05, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.281584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106178, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078416, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.768697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5194783, "relative_activity": 1.42972, "balance": 1.768697, "dry_up": 0.869908, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082543, "annualized_volatility": 0.576709, "from_high_reference": -0.246387, "from_low_reference": 0.316106 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1094.916667, "fair_value_reference": 1524.185897, "structural_low": 832.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.060374, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.083253, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.112329, "worst_return": -0.365438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.082889, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.135262, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.11623, "worst_return": -0.439171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.172007, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.22413, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 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"fair_value": 1549.051282, "relative_strength": -10.631236, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.034179, "energy": 44.725504, "activity_lines": [ 1164.733333, 1136.754545, 1068.221429, 1076.239785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1040.0, "volume": 2939004, "typical_volume": 3967499.55, "trend": 1109.916667, "fair_value": 1540.384615, "relative_strength": -16.478754, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.178452, "energy": 11.554328, "activity_lines": [ 1118.933333, 1126.209091, 1070.47619, 1071.210753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1062.0, "volume": 2184932, "typical_volume": 3632805.65, "trend": 1101.85, "fair_value": 1532.00641, "relative_strength": -15.178119, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.124985, "energy": 10.641858, "activity_lines": [ 1089.533333, 1118.018182, 1074.290476, 1068.119355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1095.0, "volume": 5194783, "typical_volume": 3633426.5, "trend": 1094.916667, "fair_value": 1524.185897, "relative_strength": -11.992555, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.064046, "energy": 14.443248, "activity_lines": [ 1082.133333, 1114.272727, 1080.571429, 1067.677419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }