{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86f2f8da-708b-4079-8b9e-744905c9584c", "symbol": "XMID", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Indonesia Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.527, "architecture_energy": 33.748, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.884, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.46, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 22.82, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 32.29, "downward_expansion": 61.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 664.733333, 656.643182, 673.932143, 715.760484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 674.375, "trend_reference": 782.9875, "distance_from_trend": -0.138715, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1076.332353, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.373451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.560706, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.288915, "excess_performance": -0.340151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.138715, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140342, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.373451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044517, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.305607, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032139, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288915, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.417494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23600, "relative_activity": 0.831807, "balance": 0.417494, "dry_up": 0.879742, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061109, "annualized_volatility": 0.349661, "from_high_reference": -0.511248, "from_low_reference": 0.162215 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 782.9875, "fair_value_reference": 1076.332353, "structural_low": 580.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.015811, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.000753, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.140326, "worst_return": -0.230858, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027114, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.0185, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.180181, "worst_return": -0.22804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.008343, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.016313, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.207256, "worst_return": -0.099179, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009272, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0008, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017933, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012934, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": 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"trend": 817.875, "fair_value": 1088.641648, "relative_strength": -31.232494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.607312, "energy": 53.496515, "activity_lines": [ 649.5, 647.893182, 691.039881, 743.055645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 662.875, "volume": 39938, "typical_volume": 30572.1, "trend": 806.583333, "fair_value": 1084.47418, "relative_strength": -32.156066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.511734, "energy": 50.615689, "activity_lines": [ 653.316667, 649.488636, 684.092857, 733.055645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 658.75, "volume": 13440, "typical_volume": 30654.4, "trend": 794.616667, "fair_value": 1080.315526, "relative_strength": -32.668406, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.02677, "energy": 44.080871, "activity_lines": [ 656.833333, 651.584091, 677.845238, 723.518011 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 674.375, "volume": 23600, "typical_volume": 28371.95, "trend": 782.9875, "fair_value": 1076.332353, "relative_strength": -30.560706, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.526552, "energy": 33.748464, "activity_lines": [ 664.733333, 656.643182, 673.932143, 715.760484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }