{ "ticker": { "uuid": "86f4597d-9de9-4e23-85d9-b54e1c366c29", "symbol": "CIEM", "name": "CI Emerging Markets Alpha ETF C$ Series", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 72.191, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 20.531, "architecture_energy": 26.659, "architecture_maturity": 65.168, "architecture_confidence": 80.795, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.52, "rotation_up": 19.65, "upward_expansion": 54.73, "deceleration": 91.16, "rotation_down": 44.33, "downward_expansion": 23.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.49, 31.214546, 31.159333, 30.313221 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.790001, "trend_reference": 29.265182, "distance_from_trend": 0.052104, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.620242, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.424128, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.167402, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123704, "excess_performance": 0.003283, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052104, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081039, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.424128, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.11556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011674, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128682, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15700, "relative_activity": 0.350056, "balance": 0.367474, "dry_up": 1.403567, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046966, "annualized_volatility": 0.289102, "from_high_reference": -0.096927, "from_low_reference": 0.401545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.265182, "fair_value_reference": 21.620242, "structural_low": 25.049999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033438, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.05062, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.152025, "worst_return": -0.020299, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060827, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.030514, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.341527, "worst_return": 0.052578, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.190104, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.104176, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.318583, "worst_return": 0.061624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003282, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074094, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025841, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.216753, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05074, "active": false }, { 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"energy": 77.413875, "activity_lines": [ 32.87667, 32.297043, 30.731409, 29.706131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.139999, "volume": 16300, "typical_volume": 52050.0, "trend": 28.609941, "fair_value": 21.275039, "relative_strength": 9.435607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.937408, "energy": 62.769865, "activity_lines": [ 32.743271, 32.369965, 30.990229, 29.950383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.82, "volume": 31800, "typical_volume": 52385.0, "trend": 28.787121, "fair_value": 21.36033, "relative_strength": 1.524125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.249542, "energy": 35.876585, "activity_lines": [ 31.744344, 31.973339, 31.010239, 30.028451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.42, "volume": 13200, "typical_volume": 49095.0, "trend": 28.976409, "fair_value": 21.444814, "relative_strength": 3.092832, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.426928, "energy": 25.121168, "activity_lines": [ 31.107999, 31.713635, 31.080725, 30.133798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.09, "volume": 191100, "typical_volume": 46700.0, "trend": 29.122541, "fair_value": 21.529355, "relative_strength": 2.233327, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.786549, "energy": 26.764383, "activity_lines": [ 30.592, 31.391261, 31.097027, 30.205642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.790001, "volume": 15700, "typical_volume": 44850.0, "trend": 29.265182, "fair_value": 21.620242, "relative_strength": 1.167402, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.530862, "energy": 26.659241, "activity_lines": [ 30.49, 31.214546, 31.159333, 30.313221 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }